2010年4月美国石化行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国石化行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：160
        【目录或简介】：

Safe to Ride the Rollercoaster Again
■ Action: Refining is in the Dark Ages. However, that does not mean select
refiner stocks are noninvestable. We believe that there is near-term upside
potential to stock prices owing to confidence in a strengthening U.S.
recovery. This is not an earnings call—it’s a value call from oversold
conditions. Large-cap refiner stocks are 83% below their DCF value on
average, based on our margin forecasts loaded into HOLT®. We do not
expect this gap to close immediately. However, we believe that line of sight
on a global and U.S. recovery could drive 20% upside in the coming months.
This is a tradable bounce, as we move from oversold conditions into a new
normal of lower earnings and cash flow. As bankruptcy risks recede and the
path to a mid-decade Renaissance become clearer, multiples have room to
expand. We initiate coverage of the group at Market Weight; there is deep
value in refining, but a difficult macro backdrop will restrain absolute nearterm
earnings.
■ Remain cautious on refining margins: Even with a U.S. demand recovery,
the refining industry faces the challenge of rising fuel efficiency, excess
capacity, and biofuels. Although margins have bounced off their fourth
quarter 2009 lows, refining margins need to remain structurally weak to drive
out marginal capacity. Our analysis suggests it will take four to five years of
sustained global demand growth and 1.0-1.5 million bbl/d of further closures
to tighten markets sufficiently for a true Renaissance.
■ Stock calls: We are initiating coverage of seven U.S. refiners in this note.
Our top pick is Sunoco (SUN, target $39, 27% upside potential, Outperform).
Sunoco (SUN) is no longer a true refiner, with less than half of its forecasted
earnings from refining. SUN is an undervalued play on coking markets. As
the economy recovers, more heavy barrels will come to market. Valero
(VLO) is the key refining play on a global recovery, with substantial earnings
optionality if light-heavy spreads widen. VLO is the most leveraged to an
economic recovery—as global demand recovers more heavy oil barrels will
come to market and VLO has substantial earnings optionality if light-heavy
spreads widen. We highlight the debt of Western Refining (WNR) as an
interesting alternative to play this story.

Table of Contents
Portfolio Manager Snapshot 3
Armageddon Looks off the Table 5
Surviving the Dark Ages 11
Valuation 19
Industry Risk Factors 23
Credit Suisse versus Consensus 25
Stock Price Performance 29
Refining Margin Outlook 33
Credit Suisse Assumptions 41
Tactical Margin Outlook 144
Focus (1): U.S. at Consumer CAFÉ 44
Focus (2): West Coast Outlook 56
Focus (3): Falling Returns to Complexity 51
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) 58
Delek US—Valuation and EPS Outlook 65
Frontier Oil Corporation (FTO) 69
Frontier Oil—Valuation and EPS Outlook 76
Holly Corp. (HOC) 80
Holly Corp.—Valuation and EPS Outlook 89
Sunoco, Inc. (SUN) 93
Sunoco—Valuation and EPS Outlook 102
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) 106
Tesoro—Valuation and EPS Outlook 113
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) 117
Valero—Valuation and EPS Outlook 129
Western Refining Inc. (WNR) 133
Western Refining—Valuation and EPS Outlook 140

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石化行业 行业研究 Renaissance 美国 研究报告 行业 石化