摩根斯坦利：亚太地区农产品行业研究报告2009年8月

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Contents
Investment Case: Buy CPO Stocks, Especially Upstream.......................... 3
We Initiate Coverage of the CPO (Crude Palm Oil) Industry with an Attractive View.....3
Our Top Picks are KLK and IFAR .............................................................................................3
CPO Price of US$800 to Support Stock Prices… ..........................................................3
…Thanks to Tighter SU Ratio…................................................................................................3
…El Niño…...............................................................................................................................3
…And Firm Prices for Substitutes .............................................................................................3
We Thus See Downside Risks to Stock-Usage Ratios and Upside Risk to CPO Prices 4
Key Recommendations: Upstream Attractive.............................................. 5
Bull to Bear Analysis ...................................................................................... 8
Base Scenario: Sector Upside 13% ...............................................................................8
Bull Scenario: Sector Upside 53% .................................................................................8
Bear Scenario: Sector Downside 40% ...........................................................................9
How Do Palm Oil Companies Make Money? .............................................. 15
Trading Stocks? We See “Buy and Hold” Opportunities.......................... 17
Better Opportunities Upstream.................................................................... 18
Debate #1: Oversupply in 2010? El Niño Suggests the Opposite............ 20
Debate #2: Does Long-term Supply Face Constraints? Yes .................... 22
Debate #3: Can the CPO Demand Curve Shift? See Crude Oil History... 25
Debate #4: Is CPO the Only Share Price Driver? We Don’t Think So ...... 29
Company Comparison.................................................................................. 31
Valuation Methodology................................................................................. 36
Company Analysis ........................................................................................ 40
Kuala Lumpur Kepong.................................................................................. 41
Overweight, Price Target RM16.50 ..............................................................................41
Indofood Agri-Resources ............................................................................. 46
Overweight, Price Target S$1.90 .................................................................................46
Astra Agro Lestari ......................................................................................... 51
Overweight, Price Target Rp23,500 .............................................................................51
Golden Agri-Resources ................................................................................ 56
Overweight, Price Target S$0.50 .................................................................................56
Sime Darby..................................................................................................... 61
Equal-weight, Price Target RM8.00 .............................................................................61
IOI Corporation .............................................................................................. 66
Underweight, Price Target RM4.70 ..............................................................................66

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关键词：行业研究报告 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 亚太地区 摩根斯坦 研究报告 行业 摩根斯坦利 农产品 亚太

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