花旗：全球铁矿石行业研究报告2009年8月

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Metals & Mining Sector
From Bears to Bulls on Iron Ore
 Iron Ore Price Upgrades — Citi’s commodity team have replaced the claws with
horns in iron ore, upgrading to a 15% increase in 2010E, previously a 16.5% fall
for fines. Whilst the cyclical outlook is more bullish, we remain relatively cautious
on the structural outlook given potential new supply, move to spot pricing and
elasticity of Chinese production. Long-term fines price of US$57/dmt maintained.
 Earnings Upgrades — Earnings impact moderated by adoption of Citi’s latest A$
upgrades. BHPB FY10E +1% to US$9.1b and FY11E +13% to US$13.9b. RIO
downgraded 2% to US$4.6b in 2009E, but 2010E upgraded 8% to US$6.8b. FMG
upgraded 18% to US$342m in FY10E and 163% to US$663m in FY11E.
 Buy BHPB & RIO — Iron ore remains the single largest earnings driver for the
diversifieds and we maintain our Buy ratings with a target price of A$43 for BHP,
previously A$40, and A$68 for RIO, previously A$66. Production/shipments
appear unaffected by the detention of the RIO employees and lack of Chinese
settlement poses no real risk to estimates given spot price strength.
 Fortescue Still a Sell — Despite iron ore upgrades and allowing for the expansion
to 95mtpa at a cost of US$3.2b, FMG remains Sell-rated with a target price of
A$3.30, previously A$2.10. US$1+b is needed to fund expansion, with a
redeemable preference share issue the most likely funding mechanism.
 Who is getting Spot? — Chinese spot prices have rocketed to US$110+/t on
threats to import licenses, Indian monsoons and return of other markets. Minimal
Australian production appears to actually being sold at this price (US$90+/t FOB).

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关键词：行业研究报告 全球铁矿石 铁矿石行业 研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 行业 全球 铁矿石 花旗

最大的买主，却可怜的没有定价的资格，很悲哀。如果不团结起来，这2年人家还是要涨价的。

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

忒贵了吧？

实在太贵了呀

难怪铁矿石这么贵，连报告都这么贵！

我无语了，都是论坛人，怎么就这么狠呢

求您了降价吧

垃圾~~~~~~~~~

明年铁矿石要涨价了，是不是这个报告也要涨？