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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Upstream miners to continue to
outperform midstream metals
Commodities race ahead of
fundamentals, raise sector EPS by 6%
OW(V) miners RIO, OZL, AWC. Stay
cautious metals UW(V) Chalco, N(V) JXC
Commodities rally ahead of fundamentals.
Notwithstanding a renewed bout of risk aversion in recent
days, favourable macro conditions and dollar weakness
against Asian currencies have underpinned commodities
demand in the y-t-d. Since a brief trough in Feb 10, metal
prices have staged a strong rally taking prices up by 22-50%,
and now sit comfortably above marginal production cash
costs. While maintaining a positive medium term view, we
believe idled capacity should soon find its way back into the
market, placing pressure on elevated metal prices.
Commodity and earnings upgrades. As detailed in HSBC’s
Metals & Mining Chartbook also released today, we have
upgraded commodity price forecasts by 17% on average but our
estimates indicate a 9-17% fall from current spot levels. Bulk
commodities were the key beneficiaries where 2010e prices
were upgraded by 25% on average while metal prices were
upgraded by 11%. Our preference remains for bulks where we
see greater tightness than metals. In turn, we have raised
earnings by an average of 14% (excluding Alumina Ltd).
Prefer upstream miners to metals. In this report, we introduce
coverage of Australian global diversified miners BHP Billiton
Ltd with N(V) and Rio Tinto Ltd at OW(V). We keep our
preference for upstream miners to smelters with OW(V) ratings
on AWC, OZL and RIO. Within our coverage universe, RIO
offers the most leverage to iron ore. We stay cautious on metals
with UW(V) on Chalco and Nalco.
Valuations full for metals, attractive for miners. Overall
sector valuations are not demanding with our 2010e forecast at
14.7x PE but this is heavily skewed by lower PEs for the
diversified miners. Strong free cash generation is forecast from
the miners, with RIO and OZL standing out with FCF yield of
9% and 10% respectively. Key catalysts include upcoming 1Q
results and settlement of iron ore negotiations while dollar
volatility remains an ongoing influence on the sector.
Investment thesis 3
Company summaries 9
Chalco – Great expectations 10
Hindalco – Wait for Novelis 15
Nalco – Growth plans behind schedule 19
Alumina Ltd – Inherent growth appeal 24
Zhongwang – Extruding growth 28
Jiangxi Copper – Mines making the money 32
OZ Minerals – The golden touch 36
BHP Billiton Ltd – Lying in wait, but for what? 40
Rio Tinto Ltd – Preferred diversified miner 42
Commodities review 45
Aluminium: Growing headwind 46
Alumina: Production revival 49
Copper: Heading back to
balance, but priced in 52
Disclosure appendix 56
Disclaimer 59
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