2010年4月欧洲航天与国防行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲航天与国防行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：67
        【目录或简介】：
Civil upgrades a matter of time- civil aerospace industry data continues to
improve reinforcing our preference for the civil aerospace names in the
sector. We have seen a strong bounce in traffic (driving IATA upgrades),
ticket pricing, cargo traffic and business jet utilization which all bodes well
for the future, with the major OEMS already talking about production
increases by the end of 2010. For us the question is now when upgrades
arrive and how dynamic these upgrades are likely to be, rather than whether
we have seen the worst of the downturn.
• Aftermarket bias – we continue to favour those stocks likely to benefit
from increased aircraft utilisation rates and consider the business jet market
the most likely source of industry upgrades on a 12 month view. We remain
less positive on the OEM side of the market after record order flow in recent
years, high levels of current production, with A380 and B787 deliveries
likely to weigh on margins and scope for increased competition.
• Defence visibility unlikely to improve pre 4Q – we still expect defence
earnings to hold up better than feared in 2010E, but cannot see budget
visibility improving pre 4Q 2010E at the earliest with the FY12 budget
request. Even if ‘10 EPS is stronger than feared, we expect concerns to move
to 2011 in the context of a sector which has seen a decade-long up cycle.
Nevertheless, budget cuts have historically driven a re-rating of the sector.
• Buy on weakness - After a strong Q1 share price performance, we see scope
for some profit taking amongst the civil names within the sector in light of
what could be underwhelming Q1 and Q2 results, before recovery in H2 and
beyond. If flight restrictions remain in place longer term this could also
weigh on industry earnings, even if this should only delay the recovery in
industry earnings.
• Our preferred plays in the sector remain Rolls-Royce (for its defensive
growth attributes), Meggitt due to its high aftermarket focus and exposure to
business jet aviation (which we also expect to be less impacted by European
flight bans) and BAE Systems, where we maintain downside risks are more
than priced into the current valuation.
• We remain Neutral on Cobham and QinetiQ which we expect to be weighed
down by high exposure to defence sales; and EADS, preferring early cycle
aftermarket plays. MTU is our only Underweight as we maintain the stock is
already pricing in a significant positive newsflow.
Table of Contents
Key Investment Points .............................................................4
Civil aerospace .........................................................................6
Traffic - utilisation .......................................................................................................7
OEM – new aircraft deliveries .....................................................................................9
Defence ...................................................................................13
US.............................................................................................................................14
UK .............................................................................................................................16
Other Europe..............................................................................................................18
Other markets.............................................................................................................18
Other drivers...........................................................................19
Restocking .................................................................................................................19
Narrow body upgrade ................................................................................................19
B787...........................................................................................................................20
M&A..........................................................................................................................21
Pensions and interest rates .........................................................................................22
The US$.....................................................................................................................23
Order news.................................................................................................................24
Valuation .................................................................................26
Plain vanilla ...............................................................................................................26
Dividends...................................................................................................................26
Civil aerospace...........................................................................................................27
Defence ......................................................................................................................28
Balance sheets............................................................................................................29
Growth & profitability ...............................................................................................30
BAE Systems (OW) – defence play valued for budget cuts32
The issues...................................................................................................................33
Valuation....................................................................................................................34
Cobham (N) – excellent track record reflected in price.......37
The issues...................................................................................................................38
Valuation....................................................................................................................39
EADS (N) – Visibility improving, but issues remain for the
late cycle OE play...................................................................41
The issues...................................................................................................................42
Valuation....................................................................................................................43
Meggitt (OW) –spares and bizjet exposure leaves greatest
scope for upgrades ................................................................45
The issues...................................................................................................................45
Valuation....................................................................................................................47
MTU (UW) – all recent good news priced in with recovery
yet to materialize ....................................................................49
The issues...................................................................................................................50
Valuation....................................................................................................................51
QinetiQ (N) waiting for Quinn to arrive .................................53
The issues...................................................................................................................53
Valuation....................................................................................................................54
Rolls-Royce (OW) defensive growth.....................................56
The issues...................................................................................................................56
Valuation....................................................................................................................59

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