麦格理：亚洲半导体行业研究报告2009年8月

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One more adjustment before growth
Section 1 – SPI analysis
We remain positive on the chip sector as the SPI continues to rise toward the
next forecast peak in February 2010.
As we forecast further industry recovery, we believe the SPI is likely to
re-accelerate upwards after a slowdown in 3Q09. However, because of the risk
of a correction and the low base of comparison in 2H08, we expect to see some
discrepancy between the SPI and the three correlated chip indices.
This report is our first attempt to show a monthly SPI interpretation.
Section 2 – Chip industry long-term trends
We are raising our outlook for the chip industry primarily because of the strength
of the recovery in the short term but also because of our stronger long-term
outlook following the extension in our modelling period that implies a longer life
for the 300mm era.
We believe the chip industry is likely to resume its normal growth and cyclicality
patterns driven by its own dynamics in 2011 after the industry goes through one
more phase of adjustment.
Section 3 – Sub-sector outlook
Our sub-sector preference list in 3Q09 has SPE at the top, followed by wafer,
DRAM and NAND, while logic/foundry comes at the bottom.
􀂃 DRAM is slowly slipping down our preferred list as we expect to see
unfavourable supply/demand and pricing conditions for the sub-sector,
starting in 4Q10.
􀂃 Logic/foundry is also lower on our list as we are concerned there may be a
correction in the pace of recovery.
􀂃 SPE is higher on the list, in anticipation of a further recovery in capex that now
seems to include capacity spending on top of technology upgrade.
􀂃 Wafer is also higher, as we expect benefits from SPE spending, as well as a
faster-than-expected rise in extra demand due to an increase in the monitor
ratio and inventory replenishment.
􀂃 NAND is higher for the first time in many quarters, in anticipation in
improvements in the outlook for SSD on the back of the introduction of
Windows 7.
Section 4 – DRAM industry dynamics
The industry has witnessed a double-dip scenario play out. Now the industry is
enjoying a brief recovery but we suspect the next productivity gains and
technology upgrades would lead to a mild price fall in October 2009.
We forecast the DRAM industry will face instability in 2011, leading to the next
phase in the consolidation of the DRAM industry.

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