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European automobiles 2
Having experienced a significant correction in 2009, premium auto demand could
return to growth next year, thanks to supportive GDP. Highly correlated premium
indicators point to a recovery in 2010. Our top picks are BMW and Renault.
2009 should be a lesson learned 2
Premium recovery in 2010? 3
We believe premium demand could rebound in 2010, assuming a healthy 2009
demand correction, We anticipate European GDP growth that supports car
volumes, and higher net disposable income as well as higher delivery rates for
premium players in 2010.
Premium manufacturers should improve throughout 2009 3
European passenger car market 8
The European car market has seen the positive impact of scrapping incentives
across all major car markets in 1HFY09. We reiterate our view that the best is yet to
come in 2HFY09.
Scrapping incentives boost the market
Soft landing becomes a reality
Volume or premium? 13
The volume manufacturers are showing the positive impact of the scrapping
incentives in FY09. The premium manufacturers’ volumes seem to have bottomed
out and are slowly building an upwards trend that could even turn anti-cyclical in
FY10.
Volume manufacturers 13
Premium manufacturers 14
Car market forecast 15
Truck market remains challenging 16
European truck sales continued their negative trend in 1H09, falling 43% yoy, and
48% yoy for June alone. Sales in Japan, China and the US also continued to spiral
and, currently, we only see signs of recovery in North America towards the end of
the year.
Truck deliveries by OEM 19
Material costs and currency 22
We see a possibility that lower material costs could compensate for the minor
negative currency impacts that we expect in 2009.
Material costs ease, currency remains a burden 22
Cash flow analysis 25
Company profiles 29
Renault 29
BMW 41
Daimler 58
Peugeot 68
Fiat SpA 76
Volkswagen 84
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