发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国汽车行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：102
【目录或简介】：
Action
We believe China’s automobile consumption will cruise at 10%-plus growth in the
next five years, with annual sales exceeding 25mn and total ownership reaching
130mn units in 2014F. Nomura’s auto team believes that VW, Nissan, Hyundai and
BMW could outperform global peers in China owing to the right product mix, strong
brand recognition in North/Central China, and better co-operation with Chinese
partners. We also recommend BUYing SAIC, Dongfeng and GWM on growth, while
we are NEUTRAL on Geely due to valuation.
Catalysts
Better-than-expected sales volume and policy support such as auto finance.
Anchor themes
In our view, automobile demand in China basically is a function of affordability and
urban infrastructure such as congestion and parking spaces. We do not see any
bottleneck for auto demand until total ownership reaches 130mn.
Playing to win in China
High growth cruising until total ownership exceeds 130mn units
We expect China’s auto market will continue to see steady growth in the next few
years, driven by low penetration, rising affordability and the herd effect. Assuming
GDP sees a 9.5% CAGR in the next five years, considering the potential bottleneck
of urban infrastructure and gasoline prices, we expect total ownership to reach
130mn in 2014F — implying annual sales of 25mn units by that year and a fiveyear
CAGR of 13% in sales. Thereafter, the sedan growth rate could slow due to
congested urban roads, while crossover and light trucks could drive growth given
rising wealth levels in rural China and a well-developed infrastructure by then.
Global OEMs: VW, Nissan, Hyundai and BMW to ride on the wave
We believe product mix changes, geographic growth dynamics, product launches
(tailored to Chinese consumers) and cooperation with Chinese partners are key
factors to determine long-term winners in China. In our view, luxury and economic
sedans could gain market share in the next few years, and North and Central
China will become the next drivers of auto demand. We also believe global
automakers need to work closely with local partners to find a mutually beneficial
way to grow profits in China and contribute to the Chinese auto industry. VW,
Nissan, Hyundai and GM could be long-term winners in China, in our view, thanks
to the right product mix, product launch strategy and better brand recognition in
high-growth regions. BMW could outperform in the luxury segment.
Domestic brands: poised to compete with global peers
Chinese car companies are rapidly climbing the technology and quality ladder, and
we believe in a few years, some local brands will able to compete with global
brands at home and overseas. The right product mix and high exposure to North
and Central China should help them gain market share. Domestic brands pursue
high growth without hedging downside risk, which is a double-edged sword in our
view — fuelling high growth in a bull market but potential balance sheet problems
in a slowdown. We believe Geely, BYD, Great Wall and SAIC are potential winners.
Contents
Executive summary 4
Valuation 9
Meet China in 2014 10
Era of motorisation: from luxury good to consumer product 10
Theoretical automobile annual sales in 2014 11
Potential bottlenecks: infrastructure and gasoline price 15
Moderate capacity growth until 2011 20
Growth opportunity beyond 2015 22
Replacement: not major growth driver until 2015 23
Government policy: supportive 24
Scrapping incentive to buoy replacement consumption 24
Auto finance policy to enhance affordability 25
Government purchase 27
Fuel efficiency: new regulation an uncertainty 28
Risks for long-term investment in China autos 29
Sharply rising fuel price could dampen demand in the long run 29
RMB appreciation: inevitable threat to industry profitability 30
Bifurcating into winners and losers 31
Downwards product mix shift to benefit domestic brands, VW, Nissan, Hyundai
and GM 32
Different brand recognitions in different regions 33
Distribution network first-mover advantage: VW, Hyundai, Nissan and domestic brands 35
Strength of JV relationships: VW, GM, and Honda contribute the most to China
auto industry development 36
Domestic brands: from “low price, low quality” to “bang for the buck” 38
Improving brand image 39
Improving overall quality 40
Improving after-market service 41
Still concentrating at the low end 42
Still a laggard in terms of technology 42
Why the large price gap between JV and domestic brands? 43
Global brands in China: life-of-the-party or wallflower? 45
Complicated JV structure and evolving loves and hates 45
Rivalry among existing firms remains extremely high 46
Europeans: a key growth market 48
Japanese lags, but Nissan stands out 58
Korea: Hyundai Motor — possible winner of the “price/performance” game 66
Japanese auto parts makers: moving towards a phase of growth in sales to
Chinese automakers 69
Latest company views
Volkswagen 72
Hyundai Motor 77
Nissan Motor 82
Dongfeng Motor 87
Geely Automobile 91
Great Wall Motor 95
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
