发帖
雷达卡
s the Copenhagen climate change summit in December begins to dominate the global agenda, China is trying to pull off a delicate balancing act.
On the one hand it is holding firm against international pressure to sign up to specific targets for reducing carbon emissions or to set a date for when its emissions might peak, as it believes this could curtail its economic development.
On the other, it is going out of its way to try to convince the international community that it takes the threat of global warming seriously and is putting together a robust policy on emissions.
A couple of years ago, Chinese officials resisted pressure to do more on climate change, arguing that developed nations were responsible for the bulk of the historical build-up in emissions and that, in per capita terms, China's were well below western levels.
But with the country becoming the economy with the largest overall level of emissions, its policy has had to shift substantially.
The attempt at a charm offensive was on display when President Hu Jintao spoke last month at the United Nations climate change summit. In an unusual departure for press management, officials gave the speech a big build-up, saying that he would make an “important” announcement.
Yvo de Boer, the head of the UN climate change body, said the speech would “take Chinese emissions very significantly away from where they would have been and are”. He added that it would be “quite ironic” to hear about this in the US, “a country that is firmly convinced that China is doing nothing to address climate change”.
In the end, Mr Hu disappointed expectations. He committed China to reducing its “carbon intensity” – the amount of carbon emissions for each unit of output in the economy – by 2020.
However, he gave no more details other than saying the reduction in carbon intensity would be “notable”. Mr Hu won praise for his announcement, but it was not the game-changing news some had hoped for.
“While not giving any specific numbers, President Hu signalled a willingness to move forward the negotiations by stating explicitly that China will aim for a significant carbon intensity reduction,” says Yang Ailun at Greenpeace China. “This is a step in the right direction and seriously challenges industrialised countries.”
The strategy behind Mr Hu's New York speech is clear. China wants at all costs to resist commitments that might slow its growth. But it also wants to avoid becoming the villain, especially if the Copenhagen talks collapse, because it is afraid that its exports will start to face carbon taxes in developed countries.
China has already put in place a system of energy efficiency targets, which it plans to improve by 20 per cent between 2006 and 2010, and officials say the target for the next five years will be even tougher.
It is also beginning to invest heavily in renewable energy. With these sorts of measures, Chinese diplomats hope to convince the world that they are taking decisive steps.
Indeed, by launching the carbon intensity targets, China was able to shift a lot of attention back on to the US.
The rhetoric at Copenhagen underlines a big shift in Beijing's thinking. Even a few years ago, Chinese politicians treated the issue as an abstract distraction, but they have gone through a thorough conversion.
Chinese leaders have seen the risks that pollution and environmental damage can pose to social stability – and by extension, to their own hold on power.
They are worried about their ability to get hold of energy resources to power growth. And they see green industries as potentially important.
For all those reasons, they have begun to put in place a genuine policy.
However, China has still not shaken off scepticism, partly because the economy is growing so rapidly.
Energy demand has been expanding at double-digit rates for the past decade and emissions have doubled in that time. If the economy keeps growing at the 8 per cent rate the government is targeting, it will be 150 per cent larger by 2020.
Despite recent efforts, energy efficiency is still poor – China uses twice as much energy for each unit of output as Japan or Europe. Moreover, in the richer parts of the country, high growth and lifestyle changes have already created western-level emissions.
For some observers, the sorts of policies that China is discussing might not make a big enough impact.
“The issue is not whether specific commitments are forthcoming from Beijing but how much the freight train of Chinese emissions can be slowed,” says Derek Scissors at the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC.
He notes: “To cut emissions growth in half is simultaneously a powerful accomplishment and an utter failure. That quandary, not Hu's speech, is where attention should be focused.”
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
