东南亚干散货海运行业研究报告2009年10月

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Maintain OVERWEIGHT on dry bulk shipping, bullish outlook for 2010. We turn
even more positive in this report and look to 2010 for accelerated commodity
demand growth that could lift average bulk rates 40% above 2009. We are raising
our forecasts for 2010 from 2,500 to 3,500 points on the back of an expected strong
recovery in global steel demand. With ship deliveries coming in slower than
expected, supply-demand will be balanced in 2010, allowing freight rates to rise.
• Our top OUTPERFORM calls are STXPO, Pacific Basin, and TTA, with more
than 30% upside to target prices. For these three stocks, we upgrade targets by 16-
22%, while 2010-11 forecasts are raised by 15% to >100%. PSL is also rated
OUTPERFORM but Maybulk remains an UNDERPERFORM on valuation grounds.
Over the past month, the BDI has recovered from 2,200 points to close at 3,001
points yesterday. We expect seasonal coal and grain shipping demand to lift 4Q
rates further and be an immediate share price catalyst.
• Prepare for the seasonal 4Q uptick. In the current 4Q09, we expect to see robust
coal and grain shipping demand. Low coal inventories in China and attractive import
prices will encourage more shipping of coal from Indonesia and Australia.
Meanwhile, the US will enjoy a bumper soybean harvest this winter, and so will
Black Sea wheat crops. We expect both greater tonnages shipped as well as longer
tonne-miles as lower crop prices stimulate demand in Asia.
• Current oversupply of steel in China will eventually be absorbed. Big-picture
Chinese economic data suggest that demand for steel will return, and eventually
this demand will absorb available inventory, lift steel prices and give incentive to
steel mills to start producing again. Iron ore import prices are very competitive so
when demand returns, we expect shipping of iron ore to gain a lot of momentum.
• Strong steel demand recovery in developed markets. Worldsteel recently issued
robust forecasts of global steel consumption for 2010. Apparent steel use in 2010 is
forecast to rise 9.2% yoy worldwide, recovering from a contraction of 8.6% in 2009.
If these forecasts are accurate, steel production in the developed nations will take a
big step forward because steel inventories there are so low.
• Minimal fleet lay-up. The fleet of ‘laid-up’ bulkers is minimal, probably at less than
5% of the global fleet. Therefore, a recovery in demand can spur rapidly rising rates.
• Cancellations and delays will reduce pace of newbuilding deliveries. About
45% of 2009 orders have not been delivered. For 2010, we expect about 42% nondelivery
rate, keeping the supply-demand equilibrium balanced.
• Handysize rates could chart an independent upward path. While the larger
vessel sizes will see fairly robust newbuilding deliveries over the next two years, the
outstanding handysize fleet should remain relatively stagnant as deliveries are
effectively offset by demolitions. For the companies under our coverage, this is good
news because they are primarily owners-operators of handysize vessels.

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 海运行业 干散货 研究报告 行业 海运 东南亚 散货

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