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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月全球海运行业研究报告
【作者】：ARCTIC证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Utilization at 92% in Q3/09; freight rate rebound sustained. Based on preliminary
trade-, fleet and congestion data, we estimate dry bulk fleet utilization during
Q3/09 averaged 92%; in line with Q2 and prolonging the impressive dry bulk market
rebound from the levels in Q4/08 and Q1/09. Despite accelerated fleet growth in
Q3/09, solid demand from China and other importing regions have sustained a tight
market balance, which we expect will remain tight through Q4/09; boosting the
utilization level to 93-94%. From 2010 and beyond we are more negative and expect
fleet utilization dropping to 85% by 2011; deliveries will weigh rates down even with
a continued steady recovery in global demand for seaborne trade.
• China continues being the wildcard. Chinese iron ore and coal volumes have
continued driving the market in H2/09, with iron ore imports up 36% through the
year to September; increasing total dry bulk freight demand with approximately 9%
alone in 2009. We consider short term momentum likely too strong to stop, and
believe the demand strength from China will continue until monetary or fiscal
stimulus is withdrawn. In the short run, we would not be surprised if Chinese port
congestion resurrects, increasing market tightness further. We maintain our longer
term view that current Chinese iron ore import growth is unsustainable, and consider
the downside daunting if domestic liquidity dries up.
• Supply growth will start hurting soon! The dry bulk fleet has grown at an annualized
rate of 12% since July, with the Capesize fleet swelling at a whopping 22% annual
rate. The orderbook still equals 63% of the fleet, with 320 Capesize vessels scheduled
delivered next year. Given current market strength, few have an incentive to cancel
their orders, while financing has become easier to obtain. Our base case suggests
30% of current orderbook will not be delivered, but we are starting to fear post 2012
deliveries; future global yard capacity will sustain high delivery pace also after
current order book has been delivered. In the end, freight rates will converge
towards covering the cost of a newbuild; presently at USD 21,000/day for Capesize
and USD 14,350/day for Panamax; shipping dynamics will eventually prevail!
• Sell GNK, DRYS, hold DSX, JIN and GOGL. GNK has more net debt than the total
value of its assets and are a writedown away from a share price in free fall; Arctic
Sell maintained. DRYS is a bet on the Ultra Deepwater Rig market more than dry
bulk; financing for remaining rigs will likely be solved, while available rigs will get
contracts; poor corporate governance weighs down: Arctic Sell reiterated. DSX is in
the fortunate situation of being net cash positive and will be looking to expand their
fleet; we remain positive to this rock-solid dry bulk player: Market Perform
reiterated. JIN is still the budget choice on attractive EV/EBITDA, but declining
vessel prices and high remaining capex has hurt the NAV substantially: Giving them
the benefit of doubt we reiterate Market Perform. Having fixed all Capesizes, GOGL
is a bet on the Panamax segment. Strong short term market and good Q3 results
ahead maintains our market perform rating, but share is starting to look expensive!
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