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CITI-Taiwan Semi and TFT LCD Supply Chain
Aug 09: Early Signs of Seasonal Weakness?
What's new — Taiwan Semi and TFT-LCD supply chain reported Aug sales of
NT$283bn, up 5.5% mom (lower than 3-year avg of 8.3% mom for Aug) and 3.3%
yoy. 3.3% yoy for Aug was slightly better than July 09's 0.8% yoy and cycle trough
of -55% yoy in Jan 09.
Winners and losers — Thanks to Aug memory and TFT shipment and ASP uptick,
NAND controller was up 16% mom and 18% yoy, with Memory IC and module
(+13% mom, -14% yoy) and LCD panel (11% mom, 3% yoy). These outperformed
Foundry (-3% mom, -3% yoy), FC Substrate (2% mom, -17% yoy) and IC channel
(1% mom, 20% yoy) on a mom basis.
OEM/EMS — After in-line seasonal strength in July, Taiwan OEM/EMS supply
chain reported disappointing Aug sales of NT$517.8bn, -3% mom (worse than 3-
year avg of +8% mom) and -4% yoy. On mom basis, we saw stronger DSC and
LCD monitor sales increases of 35% mom and 25% mom, respectively, while
broadband and Wireless LAN were relatively weak.
Early signs of weakness? — Owing to some component shortages coupled with a
pull in shipments to July 09 from Aug 09, we saw some mom weaknesses for
notebook, OEM/EMS and foundry vendors in Aug. In addition, both AUO and CMO
posted below seasonal handset panel shipment declines of 10-15% mom.
View on Sep and 4Q09 — Based on our analysis , we should see the Taiwan Semi
and TFT-LCD supply chain grow at a more moderate 2-3% mom in Sep (vs. 3-year
avg forecast of 4% mom in Sep). For 4Q09, we expect a 0-5% qoq decline for the
sector (vs. -10% as 3-year avg) and yoy sales improvement to continue.
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