2010年3月全球海运行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：53
        【目录或简介】：
Global Shipping
Flurry of New Orders Keeps
Shipbuilders Upbeat
Equity Summary: Shipbuilders led our coverage
universe last week, while tankers and dry bulkers fell.
Tanker Market: VLCC rates are holding up (~$54kpd)
thanks to very strong fixture activity for March and early
April cargoes in the Arabian Gulf. This strength affected
all Aframax routes with rates in the Med and North Sea
benefiting most due to the lack of tonnage and difficulty
of charterers to cover sensitive positions. This surge
may attract Suezmax vessels that saw rates out of WAF
dropping even further. We do not see the upward trend
being sustainable for much longer however, as ample
tonnage patiently waits for future cargoes.
Dry Bulk Market: Capesize spot rates dipped 15%
below Panamax rates last week as iron ore activity
slowed. A strong grain season and robust mineral
demand, however, helped Panamaxes maintain their
upward trend, though the biggest winners were
Supramaxes and Handymaxes that surged by 7-9%.
With abundant amounts of met coal, the US is also the
only exporter with excess coal port capacity. US to
China routes are trading at $50/ton for a Panamax,
within its $40-$55 range since November. Total US coal
seaborne exports could grow 30% this year to 60mt,
essentially reaching current levels of available US
port/rail capacity. This is a potential catalyst for names
with Panamax and Supramax spot exposure.
Container Market: Freight rates are showing signs of
weakness post the strong rally in January-February.
Long-haul Asia-Europe/Mediterranean and Asia-US
rates have declined 2-5% W/W, as laid up ships are
reactivated back to the operating fleet and new services
are redeployed. Over the next two months, an
estimated 13% and 4% capacity increase is likely on the
Asia-Europe and Asia-US routes, respectively, which
will weigh on near-term freight rates, particularly on the
volatile spot Asia-Europe trade, in our view.

Table of Contents
Freight Rates and Expectations Page 2-6
Valuation and Consensus Page 7-13
Ship Prices and NAV Analysis Page 14-19
Tanker and Bulk Macro Analysis Page 20-30
Containership Macro Analysis Page 30-31
Stock Price & NAV Projections Page 32-49

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 海运行业 respectively 研究报告 行业 全球 海运

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