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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚太证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：66
【目录或简介】：
Key highlights, GEMs 2010 Outlook
1. We have set an end of 2010 target for the MSCI EM (MXEF) to 1200 (23% upside from current levels).
2. We expect increased headwinds next year from rising energy prices and the start of monetary policy
tightening. However, although both the 1994 and 2004 parallels suggest a volatile year ahead, it is too early
for a major cycle peak in EM equities.
3. Trailing valuations are tracking above the long-term average but earnings are troughing. We expect + 40%
USD EPS growth in 2010 (vs. +28% previously). On this basis MSCI EM is trading at 13.9x 2010E P/E and
1.8x 2010 P/Book (cheap to the long-term average)
4. Key themes for 2010:
a) Asian outperformance vs. EMEA / Latam will end as oil prices rise further
b) Sector leadership will shift to upstream Energy from IT ahead of the first Fed hike
c) Prefer Financials and key Consumer Discretionary in under-leveraged, fast growing EM (e.g. Brazil,
China, India, Indonesia)
d) A more micro market next year: focus on Best Business Models using our recent screening work
5. Overweights are China, Brazil, Taiwan, India, Israel, Poland, Malaysia and Egypt. Underweights are South
Africa, Turkey, Hungary, Thailand, Peru, Chile and Philippines.
6. Large-cap names which make the Best Business Models list include: CNOOC, ENRC, Mediatek, Reliance
Industries, Tencent Holdings and Walmart de Mexico.
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