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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚洲干散货海运行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：29
【目录或简介】：
Sector to continue its underperformance on lower BDI. The recent surge
in BDI is mainly driven by iron ore and seasonal coal and grain demand,
which we think is unsustainable, given the acceleration in vessel supply in
2010. We remain negative on the sector, with the sector underperforming
MSCI Asia Ex-Japan index by 39% since 22 May 2008 and 12% since 11
May 2009 (Figures 7 and 8). Our base case suggests industry oversupply,
already taking into account stronger demand growth and 25+33% order
cancellations/delays.
■
Supply/demand in balance only if everything goes right. We think 2010
supply can match demand only if drybulk trade demand growth returns to
7.4% (close to the historical high of 8.0%, and assuming stronger China iron
ore demand and high import substitution) and new orders cancellations/delays
(25+45%) are significantly higher. We think this is unlikely, with China’s port
inventory potentially rising due to more iron ore imports and less incentive for
ship-owners to cancel/delay orders based on the current profitable BDI levels.
■
What to watch out for in the short term. Positive catalysts could be
seasonally stronger 4Q and 1Q, commencement of iron ore negotiations and
port congestion. Negative catalysts could be weakening iron ore imports,
with price differentials declining and new vessel deliveries rising.
■
Stock valuations unattractive. Most stocks have underperformed relatively
and we expect this to continue. Valuation of most of the stocks are
unattractive on P/B. Sell expensive stocks, including China Cosco, CSD,
Maybulk and U-Ming.
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