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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲集装箱海运行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24
【目录或简介】：
Liners staged a surprisingly strong
rebound and outperformed over the
past quarter. But risks are now rising
􀀗 Rate recovery crushed by overcapacity,
industry indiscipline, and slowing
demand growth
􀀗 Time to sell CSCL as momentum slows
The shipping liners are no longer sinking. A surprising level
of industry cooperation and better than expected container
volumes, especially intra-Asia, have generated a rebound in
freight rates over the past quarter. To reflect this, we increase
forecast revenues, with the highest growth expected from intra-
Asia. However, risks to the sector are rising.
There is massive and chronic oversupply. We estimate a
46% gap in 2010 between fleet capacity and demand. The
idle fleet, at 10%, is still triple the level of previous
downturns. We calculate that vessel utilisation will only
return to 2007 levels by 2016. Low entry barriers and
commoditised products also create a poor industry structure.
We believe the sector will be listless over the next two
years rather than steaming towards a sustainable profit
recovery. We argue that a sustainable rate recovery looks
unlikely in 2010-11. We see periods of rising spot rates (due
to coordinated industry action) quickly followed by
indiscipline and rate declines. We believe this is already
happening – the re-introduction of capacity into Asia-Europe
trade has started to depress rates.
Time to sell overvalued liners. The container shipping
sector is trading at 1.2x book, its long-term average, despite
the lacklustre outlook. Within the sector, significant
mispricing also exists. We argue that China Shipping
Container Lines is significantly overvalued and should be
sold as momentum slows in March. We believe the only
stock worth buying amongst our container coverage is
OOIL. Our other favoured shipping company is bulker
Pacific Basin. Instead, we believe the airline sector offers a
far more compelling cyclical buy at the moment, and our top
picks are Cathay Pacific and Korean Air.
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