2009年11月亚太集装箱海运行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚太集装箱海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
Outlook still grim: We expect consumer spending in the
West to remain anaemic in 2010. Even if trade rebounds, the
industry faces massive capacity overhang with a record level
of fleet being idle and the imminent arrival of large new ships
designed to sail the long haul Asia-US/Europe trade routes.
Catch 22 situation for supply: We forecast excess capacity
in 2010-11 even after assuming 40% of order book is
deferred. Carriers need to cut capacity collectively, however
this conflicts with their plans to expand and pursue a highvolume,
low-cost strategy to thrash competition.
Disagree with consensus: We expect rates to remain under
pressure and the sector to extend their losses to USD3.1bn
and USD1.8bn in 2010-11 vs. consensus loss forecast of
USD500m and earnings of USD1.1bn in 2011. Valuation has
bounced back further than it should: the sector should trade
below 1-year forward BV, similar to previous down cycles,
instead of the current 1x.
Prefer dry bulk stocks offering compelling value for
exposure to shipping. We initiate on container shipping
stocks Evergreen and CSCL with N(V) and UW(V) ratings
respectively. We upgrade OOIL to N(V) and remain UW(V)
on NOL.
Catalysts include evidence of slow recovery of demand in
the US and Europe, low levels of scrapping and/or
cancellation of new container shipping orders and takeovers
and/or asset acquisition.

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