发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月日本海运行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
Resuming coverage on NYK at EW: We see both the
least downside/upside at NYK. Reiterate MOL at OW.
Raise to Attractive: Risk of consolidated BPS erosion
due to additional impairment losses was discounted in
the industry's sharp sell-off, heavily skewing risk-reward
to the upside. PTs all imply 10%+ upside, and downside
to our bear cases is minor. We are more upbeat than the
market on 3 key areas backing our buy call: 1) dry bulk
prices to rise, as 2010 supply fears prove unfounded
even using cautious assumptions on China steel output;
2) auto freight shipping growth continuing (+50% F3/10
4Q; +25% F3/11); 3) V-shaped recovery in F3/11 for RP
(close link to stock prices), led by points #1-2 above that
the market is unconvinced of still. The market's outlook
for container rate hikes this spring is unwarranted, and is
a risk to keep stocks range bound, near term; this would
present a chance to re-enter.
Debate 1: How much BPS erosion to expect, as a
guide to downside? We forecast consolidated end-
F3/10 BPS, taking into account impairment losses in
container business and further restructuring costs, of
¥341 for NYK, ¥468 MOL, and ¥318 K-Line (end-F3/11
here, as we expect losses next FY too). Adjusted P/Bs of
0.8-1.1x are at the low end of the range for past earnings
downtrends.
Debate 2: dry bulk ‘2010 issue’ feared by market. We
remain bullish, seeing dry bulk price recovery in 2010.
Even in our bear case (210 new capesize vessels, China
crude steel output +3.7%), dry bulk S/D tightens in 2010.
Debate 3: Conditions for container business to turn
profitable in F3/11? Much hinges on rate hikes, given
limited scope for cost cuts and revenue growth from
higher volumes. Container profitability in F3/11 requires
at least $250/TEU (20-25% YoY) price hikes on N.
America/Europe routes. We still view this as unlikely.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
