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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲显示屏行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：23
【目录或简介】：
Market has three big worries: Excess
inventories, 2Q seasonality, and ASP
declines. We disagree
Sentiment is poised to shift on 2Q
US/Europe demand, rising ASPs and
healthy inventories
ROE recovery to drive share prices. Buy
AUO, LGD, INX (CMI), Sharp
Healthy inventory. History shows that an irrationally high
inventory level in the LCD food chain normally comes after
two to three consecutive quarters of overbuild. However,
since panel demand has rebounded from January 2009, the
market continues to exercise extreme caution on demand and
inventory, adjusting its procurement and production accordingly.
With 2009 LCD TV demand having exceeded by 28% what
consensus was projecting in early 2009, we are confident
that inventories in the supply chain have been kept at a
healthy level to date.
Second quarter is no longer low season; we think demand
will surprise on the upside. In our view, the market is too
focused on China and has overlooked that the US and Europe
are the main demand drivers for LCD products in 2Q/3Q.
With a potentially greater supply shortage in 2H10 versus
1H10, we believe buyers are likely to move panel procurement
forward to 2Q10 given the lean inventory on hand and strong
demand prospects for 2H10, driving panel prices on an upward
trend until late August 2010.
Undervalued and set to outperform. LCD stocks are trading
at PB multiples 10-20% lower than their pre-crisis trough levels.
With 2010e ROE set to improve from 0% in 2009 to 19% in
2010 (excluding Sharp), we believe true value will be unlocked
for the LCD sector once concerns are removed and the market
refocuses on the earnings prospects for the sector.
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