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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月南美固定收益市场投资策略报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
EM EXD remains in a sweet spot, as
mixed economic data reinforce our
house view that the US Federal Reserve
will be on hold until 2012
􀀗 We remain biased toward short-term
receivers, as the local curves are
starting to price out some of the toosoon,
too-high hikes previously
expected, and we now see a stronger
BLR and ARS
􀀗 This scenario is vulnerable, however, to
increasingly tighter valuations and
negative surprises in US data
Appetite for emerging markets assets remains in a sweet
spot. Economic data in the US are weak enough to keep the
Fed on hold for an “extended period” and the carry trade
alive, but strong enough to prevent a risk-aversion shock.
We continue to believe EM EXD will break its record low
level of yields: We recommend buying CDX.EM. As
spreads in many countries now are close to historical lows,
investors trying to outperform the index might be forced to
invest in the high-yielders; among this group, we favor only
Argentina.
We favor Argentina: We recommend buying Boden ’15s.
The official presentation of an exchange for holders of
defaulted debt appears imminent, while suggested valuations
will likely result in a successful operation that adds
momentum to the credit, in our view.
Without an inflation “smoking gun,” we believe central
banks will delay the beginning of monetary policy
normalization: We continue to favor receivers. The Latin
American local curves are pricing out some of the hikes
previously expected.
We are forecasting a stronger BRL and ARS: We
recommend going long BRL-CLP. We revised our BRL
forecast to 1.58 from 1.70 and our ARS forecast to 4.10 from
4.50, both for end-2010.
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