2010年3月南美固定收益市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月南美固定收益市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：45
        【目录或简介】：
Quo vadis EM? 3
Summary of views 13
Inflation pressure model 14
The pulse of the market 15
Trade ideas 16
Latin America Surprise Indices 17
Central Bank Watcher 18
Latam recent publications 19
Country overviews 20
Argentina 21
Brazil 22
Chile 23
Colombia 24
Ecuador 25
Mexico 26
Panama 27
Peru 28
Uruguay 29
Venezuela 30
Central America 31
Charts and Tables
Local markets 32
Inflation linkers and break-evens 33
External debt 35
External debt yield curves 37
External debt bonds, CDS, and basis 38
FX forecast and NDF 40
Forward/NDF-implied yield curves 41
Disclosure appendix 44
Disclaimer 45

EM EXD yields reach a historical record
low, and the rally can continue on the
back of sluggish removal of the
monetary stimulus in developed
markets; we recommend selling credit
default protection in Argentina
 We have rotated our positions in Latin
American local markets, closing
receivers in Brazil but opening some in
Chile and Mexico
 We are broadly constructive on Latam
FX, particularly the MXN, CLP, and PEN,
although threats of further intervention
remain
It all happened too quickly. The yield of EM EXD
crossed its October 2009 record and now is trading below
6%, the lowest level ever. Can the rally continue? We
believe so, supported by a very gradual removal of liquidity
by developed markets’ central banks.
We are upgrading our 2010 total-return scenarios for
EM external debt to 5.75-8.75% from 3.0-6.0%. Riskaversion
shocks remain the main risk to returns this year.
While the aggregate index enters uncharted waters, a
country-by-country comparison shows an uneven
performance. We recommend investors go long highyielding
Argentina by selling default protection.
We close receivers in Brazil, but open new ones in Chile
and Mexico in the local markets. We believe that short-end
yields have reached a floor in Brazil as the monetary policy
outlook has become more hawkish. Following the
earthquake in Chile, we see the Central Bank of Chile hiking
only in Q4, and in Mexico, we now expect Banxico to raise
rates starting in October for 50bps in total for 2010.
We are less bullish on the BRL and more bullish on the
MXN and CLP, with year-end forecasts versus the USD of
1.78, 12.25, and 505, respectively.

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关键词：投资策略报告 投资策略 市场投资 固定收益 策略报告 投资 收益 南美