2009年12月南美金属与矿产行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月南美金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：55
        【目录或简介】：
We are more bullish on commodities. JPM revised up prices of
precious, base and bulk commodities. We are bullish on the growth
prospects of China for a longer period of time, which should translate
into another wave of metals consumption. The weak dollar also
supports the asset class. Our preferred metals are copper and iron ore,
which we expect to see averaging up for the next 3 years.
• However, LatAm metals and mining stocks are expensive. Looking
purely at ’10e multiples, there is not a single bargain in the sector.
Investors have anticipated all the improvements expected for ’10, and
we would not be surprised to see a correction in the sector. Latin steels
trade at 7.5x ’10e EV/EBITDA vs. a historical range of 5.0-7.0x.
LatAm miners face the same challenge, trading at 9.3x while
historically the range has been around 6.0-9.0x.
• Prefer iron ore to steel. As a rule of thumb, iron ore should be in a
better position as an early-cycle commodity, while the steel industry
continues to be a risky space with risks of overcapacity capping prices.
Given our new iron ore pricing assumptions, we have upgraded Vale
ON and PN to Overweight from Neutral.
• Focus on bottom up. As stocks are not cheap, our preferred exposure
is into stocks that have interesting bottom-up stories. We continue to
like: (a) Ternium’s sizable free cash flows at valuations below peers’
average; (b) Gerdau’s ability to benefit from operating leverage not
only at its mini-mills but mainly at Açominas; (c) and GMexico’s
transformation from a legal/complex into a copper play stock.
• Downgrading Bradespar to Neutral, mainly on lack of a short-term
catalyst and with the discount narrowing to levels above the historical
average.
• Cautious on Brazilian flat steels and maintaining our Neutral rating
on CSN and our Underweight rating on Usiminas.
• 10 key themes for 2010. As we revise our numbers and
recommendations for the Latin Metals group, we also highlight our
views on the key themes for the year to come: (1) the role of China; (2)
stretched valuations of the group; (3) the role of commodity funds’
massive inflows; (4) currency effects and consequences; (5)
overcapacity in the steel sector; (6) the domestic steel price premium in
Brazil; (7) companies’ use of cash after the crisis; (8) government
intervention; (9) the future of iron ore pricing mechanisms; and (10)
potential deconsolidation of commodity industries

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 Overcapacity Consequences 研究报告 行业 金属 矿产 南美

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mmahuo 发表于 2009-12-20 15:16
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我想说的也是这个