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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球地震服务及设备行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：80
【目录或简介】：
Seismic stocks have performed well but we still see opportunity:
Seismic shares have, on average, increased 176% compared to one year
ago. This was led by PGS +226% and TGS +218%, while CGG Veritas and
Fugro have lagged, +145% and 116%, respectively*. We now see clearer
evidence that oil company capex is increasing and the marine market looks
to remain at least in balance in 2010. Our analysis of historical trends
supports our view that seismic stocks can produce above average return on
capital and share price appreciation.
• Marine seismic vessel supply and demand returning to balance in
2010, hence we return to a more positive view. Our updated marine
vessel supply model forecasts a 10% y/y increase in supply (previously
15%) and we believe that increased upstream capex will be sufficient to
absorb the new capacity.
• In this environment, we favour the vessel owners and hence, we
upgrade CGG Veritas to Overweight. CGG Veritas has a market leading
25% share of the global 3D seismic fleet, which will enable them to serve
the market more efficiently. We also upgrade Fugro to Overweight. Fugro
is not a pure seismic company but we like its diversification across the E&P
supply chain with potential upside in a rebound in seismic activity. We also
initiate coverage of PGS and TGS-Nopec with Neutral ratings. TGS
benefited from excess vessel capacity during 2009 but we believe as the
market tightens, this could be a risk from 2011 onwards.
• Early cycle exposure to growth in oil & gas capex to drive better
earnings growth: Throughout the exploration and production (E&P) supply
chain, there is increased tendering activity worldwide. The key
differentiating factors for seismic companies are their exposure to earlystage
exploration and shorter earnings cycle. We forecast average 2011E
earnings growth for seismic companies of 59% (range of 9-135%) vs. +34%
for the sector (range 5-135%).
• Newsflow should turn more positive: We believe that marine seismic
pricing has stabilized and that tendering activity in both onshore and
offshore data acquisition has increased. Large contracts like Saudi Aramco's
study of the Red Sea (worth up to $200m) is expected to be awarded to the
industry during Q2. We expect management to provide more optimistic
outlook commentary during the Q1 earnings season, starting with
Schlumberger (23 Apr).Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................3
Seismic Companies as an Investment....................................6
Trends and Competitive landscape ......................................11
Upstream Spending Drives Seismic .....................................17
Marine Overcapacity ..............................................................19
Multi-client data demand drivers...........................................21
Valuation .................................................................................26
CGG Veritas ............................................................................31
Fugro .......................................................................................39
PGS..........................................................................................49
TGS Nopec..............................................................................58
Appendix I – Oil & Gas E&P Supply Chain...........................66
Appendix II – Glossary of seismic terms..............................67
Appendix III – Global 3D Vessel Fleet...................................68
Appendix IV – Data to watch and useful websites...............69
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................70
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