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The significance of the iPhone when it was launched in 2007 was not that it was a better phone, a superior camera or an improved MP3 player. Nor was it the touch screen, wide display or range of apps. It was all of these things in one device — “a converged technology”, as author Mario Herger puts it.
The “iPhone moment” for cars has not happened yet, but it is easy to imagine what it will look like: an electric, self- driving “living room on wheels”, connected to the web and more often shared among users rather than bought.
It might not be clear yet who will build it, but the market is certain about one thing: it will not be the Germans.
Even as the three big German carmakers continue to post record sales for an eighth consecutive year, valuations of BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen are at their lowest levels since the financial crisis. There is scepticism that current profits can be maintained and some question whether Das Auto can survive such an industry transformation.
“Big carmakers are valued like they will soon be bankrupt,” says Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein. “The stocks are telling us a mighty recession is coming — but only in the auto industry. Not in the wider economy.”
At the most significant time for cars since the invention of the internal combustion engine, each week is bringing negative developments for the industry. Vehicle registrations in the EU plummeted last month when new emission standards took effect, while diesel bans are threatened from London to Prague. Protectionist sentiment and Brexit are bringing new uncertainties to a sector heavily reliant on global supply chains for their “just in time” manufacturing.
The developments come on top of myriad challenges facing the carmakers as they invest big sums into battery technology and autonomous software, all the while trying to maintain the value of their brands as consumers think more about dashboard apps and less about horsepower.
“The auto sector is really facing death by a thousand cuts,” says Linda Kong Ting, director of public fixed income at Sun Life Investment Management. “In isolation, no individual factor looks like it will sink the market, but you pile it all up and at some point it will be a problem — we just don’t know when.”
Diesel downturn
In numerous cases it is German carmakers that are faring the worst.
When car registrations across the EU fell 23.5 per cent last month, owing to delivery backlogs caused by new emission standards, the drop was led by a 31 per cent fall in Germany.
Audi, Volkswagen’s most profitable unit, saw a 56 per cent downturn — adding further pain to a company suffering a leadership crisis since longtime chief executive Rupert Stadler was arrested for his alleged role in the diesel scandal in June. VW dismissed him this month.
In most global cities, diesel bans are little more than a point for discussion. In Germany, however, a federal court triggered a domino effect in February when it sided with environmental groups and said the bans were an effective way to clean the air in the 70 German cities that are in breach of EU pollution laws. Driving restrictions have already been enacted in Hamburg; next year more comprehensive bans are scheduled in Berlin, Stuttgart and Frankfurt.
And in the escalating trade war between the US and China, BMW and Daimler are, ironically, most at risk because instead of building their expensive sport utility vehicles in Germany — where wages are high and labour unions strong — they invested heavily in Trump country: South Carolina and Alabama. BMW exports more than 70 per cent of its US-made vehicles, with more than 100,000 of them exported to China last year. N ow they are subject to 40 per cent tariffs, threatening the $11.6bn automotive trade surplus the US enjoys with China, according to Fitch. Moreover, Brussels recently launched a formal investigation into alleged collusion between the German carmakers, over a slow rollout of emissions technology.
But Herbert Diess, chief executive of Volkswagen, told German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung that politicians were spending too much time legislating the car industry and creating unreasonable emissions standards, while turning a blind eye to the possibility that it could result in 100,000 job losses at VW.
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