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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月泰国银行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Possible changes to capital adequacy ratio calculations should have
limited impact in Thailand, but the proposals still demand attention. On
the positive side, most of the problems the Bank for International
Settlements (BIS) addresses – reliance on wholesale funding, low levels of
equity capital, inadequate reserves – are more relevant for European or
Japanese banks than Thai banks. Nonetheless, most Thai banks would see
modest deterioration in Tier 1 of 30-70 bp were the recommendations
implemented, and one stock would see a fall in CAR sharp enough to
possibly force an equity increase.
■
We consider it too early to base stock decisions on the BIS
recommendations. Negotiations among the regulators of G3 economies
could lead to considerable changes to the recommendations, and the Bank
of Thailand could ignore key items. At the earliest, BIS does not anticipate
the new guidelines coming into force until end-2012, and further delays are
possible. Moreover, the impact on most Thai banks appears too modest to
weigh heavily in the investment decision-making process.
■
Nonetheless, it is worth being aware of the one stock possibly facing
significant risk, and ranking the remaining banks by risk levels. TCAP
stands out as the one stock facing serious risk. We calculate that its Tier 1
ratio would fall 5.3 p.p. to 8.9% were the BIS recommendations implemented
in Thailand, and much more if it acquired SCIB. As the threat remains at
least three years off, investors should not panic, but the risk cannot be
ignored. Among the other stocks, BAY faces the highest risk with a potential
1.5 p.p. reduction in Tier 1, but it would still have a Tier 1 of 9.5% even after
consolidation of GE Money. BBL stands out as having no significant risk.
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