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【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲通信设备行业前景展望
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Tougher for Telcos in 2010 – not so cheap. The
sector has re-rated 20% on FCFE yield in 2009, all in H2.
It no longer looks exceptionally cheap on an 11% FCFE
yield 2010e given weak top lines, lagged GDP effects
and capex creep (fibre, possibly spectrum / LTE in 2-3
years). A clear absolute buying level would likely be
15%+ lower, if top lines remain flat to negative.
Stock selection – BT top pick for continued cost
control and supportive regulation. Our top pick was KPN
in 2008 and Telefonica in 2009; these remain OW due to
the lack of larger cap alternatives. Earnings momentum
will be key in 2010, we believe: best are BT, Telenet
and TLSN. Smaller cap picks are Iliad, Colt, Telenet
Freenet and TPSA. Our preferred play on Russia/CIS
is Telia (EW) given also supportive cost trends
domestically. We are UW DT, and FT (EW) faces
near-term fibre / mobile issues.
Key themes. Fixed line assets are oligopolies, with
regulation improving in return for investment (BT,
VMED). Capex creep is more likely after the cuts of 09.
Three macro themes are strength in the oil price (would
support Telia / Tele2); dollar strength (would support
Vod/DT/CW) and weak E Europe fiscal positions
impacting GDP more than recognized (OTE, TKA,
TPSA). Lagged GDP recovery is negative for Vod H1.
Mobile internet the key “known unknown”. Could
LTE erode fixed broadband, or lead to aggressive
“squatter” bidding tactics on spectrum, or lead to higher
capex (and/or higher revenues)? Could the expected
recovery on mobile revenue not occur, as SMS / voice
migrate to IP and consumers remain pressured? These
are mainly downside risks.
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