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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国业务流程外包行业前景展望
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：50
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
PM Summary.............................................................................5
Top IT Services Picks in 2010 – OW-rated CTSH, VIT .............................................5
IT budgets flattish in 2010, but outsourcing and offshoring share of IT labor spend
should be up.................................................................................................................6
Views on IT Services Stocks and Business Model................8
IT and BPO Services stocks tend to be leading indicators...........................................8
IT services is a recurring business model, but the stocks are volatile..........................8
Key 2010 Themes ...................................................................11
Increase in offshoring ................................................................................................11
Clients will want increased productivity....................................................................13
Investments in sales and marketing ...........................................................................14
Hiring and Wage inflation .........................................................................................15
Consolidation activity ................................................................................................16
Expectations of job less recovery...............................................................................17
Sources of Growth in 2010 ....................................................17
Growth Services.........................................................................................................17
Growth Verticals........................................................................................................18
Geography..................................................................................................................20
Revenue Growth Acceleration will be key to stock
outperformance in 2010 .........................................................22
Growth expectations have come down ......................................................................22
EPS Growth Somewhat Less Important ...............................23
Margin Expansion......................................................................................................23
Share Repurchases or Dividends................................................................................24
Balance Sheet Remains Strong.............................................25
DSOs..........................................................................................................................25
Currency Impact .....................................................................26
Revenue Growth Impact ............................................................................................26
EPS impact.................................................................................................................26
Company Outlook in 2010 .....................................................28
Revising 2010 Estimates and Ratings ..................................29
Estimates Summary ...................................................................................................30
Price Targets & Valuation ......................................................31
Investment Risks....................................................................35
Tables
Table 1: Relative advantages of outsourcing/offshoring vs. in house operations ........7
Table 2: Annual Cost of Ownership for Each Utilized Employee ...............................7
Table 3: Offshore Leverage of various firms under our coverage .............................11
Table 4: Pricing Levers for Various Firms ................................................................14
Table 5: IT Services: SG&A, as a % of revenue........................................................15
Table 6: IT Services: Margin Sensitivity to Offshore Wage Inflation (Impact of 1%
increase in offshore wages)........................................................................................16
Table 7: IT Services: Revenue Distribution by Regions............................................21
Table 8: 2010 Growth Expectations...........................................................................22
Table 9: Contributors to EPS Growth in CY10 .........................................................23
Table 10: Current Expectations on Margin Expansion ..............................................24
Table 11: IT Services Incremental Margins...............................................................24
Table 12: Margin Levers and Pressures in FY10.......................................................24
Table 13: Buyback Expectations and Potential in 2010.............................................25
Table 14: Risk of DSO increase.................................................................................25
Table 15: Currency Impact ........................................................................................26
Table 16: Bull/Bear/JPM Thesis/Valuation/Investment Risks...................................28
Table 17: IT Services: Revenue and EPS growth estimates Expectations.................30
Table 18: IT Services: Margin Estimates...................................................................30
Table 19: IT Services: EBIT 2009-12 CAGR............................................................31
Table 20: IT Services: NTM Multiples......................................................................32
Table 21: IT Services Price Target Summary – .........................................................33
Table 22: Valuations/Comps......................................................................................34
Figures
Figure 1: 2009 Stock Returns: IT Services vs. S&P 500 .............................................5
Figure 2: IT Services: Forward Year's Revenue Growth Expectations (Current vs. a
Year Ago) ....................................................................................................................6
Figure 3: Historical IT services returns (relative to S&P 500).....................................8
Figure 4: Heritage Global Providers: Revenue Growth vs. Stock Returns ..................9
Figure 5: Offshore IT Services: Revenue Growth vs. Stock Returns...........................9
Figure 6: Financial services growth rate at select IT services firms ............................9
Figure 7: Offshore IT Services: Revenue Mix by Services........................................12
Figure 8: Offshore Penetration Rates by Services .....................................................12
Figure 9: Offshore ITS Industry: Revenue mix by verticals ......................................13
Figure 10: Offshore Penetration rates (offshore, as a % of total spend) ....................13
Figure 11: Offshore ITS Industry: Revenue mix by verticals ....................................20
Figure 12: Offshore Penetration rates (offshore, as a % of total spend) ....................20
Figure 13: Target Multiple vs. EBIT CAGR .............................................................32
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