2010年1月欧洲传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：

Media
Momentum
An outperforming sector. The sector ex Vivendi
outperformed MSCI Europe by 15% in 2009. Including
Vivendi, it underperformed by 5%.
2010 – the big themes. (i) The shape of the cycle: we
expect performance in H1 to be dominated by cyclicals
combining improving underlying advertising trends with
weak comparatives. (ii) Operational gearing: many
cyclicals are likely, we think, to combine an improving top
line with a new-found discipline in cost control, leading to
sharply improved margins. (iii) Structural concerns: we
expect the key area of heightened focus to be on IPTV
and its implications for pay TV. By contrast, we expect
structural fears in the Broadcasters to lessen. (iv)
Renewal of corporate activity: a rash of deals in Q4
2009 leads us to believe that media acquisition, disposal
and merger activity is likely to rise in 2010.
Cyclicals preferred in H1. Early signs are that
advertising is off to a strong start in 2010, benefiting
media owners. We are already buyers of ITV (raised
forecasts and price target) and ProSieben (lowest rated
broadcaster) and add Telecinco (proposed Cuatro
merger) to our Overweights. We turn buyers of Aegis
(most cyclically exposed agency) and are Overweight
the most cycle-exposed B2B players, DMGT and
Informa. We are no longer Underweight JC Decaux.
Defensives in H2. As comps for the cyclicals toughen in
H2, the defensives may take over leadership. We
anticipate this, moving Overweight on Pearson, the best
positioned professional publisher (we see room for EPS
upgrades, margin improvement and attractive valuation).
We remain Overweight on SES and Eutelsat.
Lagardère and UBM moved to Underweight.
Lagardère has a tough books comparable in 2010,
significant structural challenges in magazines and a
difficult climate in the Sports division. UBM is late cycle
in Exhibitions and earnings are under pressure in its
other divisions. Having re-rated despite poor trading in
2009, we expect WPP to underperform due to anaemic
top-line growth and its testing valuation.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 传媒行业 Professional 研究报告 行业 欧洲

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