2010年1月英国石油开采与加工行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月英国石油开采与加工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：

UK E&Ps
Informer: Well Set for 2010;
Top Picks: TLW, AFR, SIA
Positive view into 2010: The risk-reward for the sector
is less favourable than 12 months ago, with the E&Ps
discounting c.$80/bbl on our numbers (versus the
forward curve at c.$90/bbl by 2013). Nevertheless, we
think the group should outperform the market and the oil
sector in 2010, based on increased risk appetite from
investors, better access to capital and our view that oil
prices move higher by year end. Companies with
intensive drilling campaigns and those that offer
differentiated asset portfolios should be the winners. Our
top picks for 2010 are Tullow, Afren and SOCO.
IOCs to re-enter M&A space? M&A was led by state
entities and NOCs in 2009 before Exxon’s offer for XTO
in the US in December. We argue that 2010 may see
increased IOC activity as competition for oil and gas
assets intensifies and thus underpins current valuations.
SOCO upgraded to OW: One of the worst performers
in 2009, activity levels and the ability to crystallise value
in Vietnam and West Africa should improve through
2010. While our upgrade risks being one quarter too
early, the investment case has been largely neglected
and the shares offer one of the best risk-reward profiles
in the group – SOCO is the only name trading below our
core valuation. With financing concerns overdone, in our
opinion, we advise building positions now.
Afren – resumption of coverage with OW: The
investment case remains positive – a stronger balance
sheet should accelerate development of further phases
of Ebok and sustain the acquisition and appraisal model
while the Cote d’ Ivoire acreage provides exposure to
the highly sought after West Africa cretaceous play.
2010 E&A programs updated: Tullow remains the
quality play for exposure to the drill bit, particularly as the
outlook for Dana and Premier has deteriorated. The
potential upside at Cairn from Greenland could be
significant but given the strong performance into year
end, this is now largely priced in, bar a material move
higher in crude prices, on our numbers.
Wells to watch in Jan: Papyrus (Egypt) from Dana.

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