2010年3月全球石油开采设备行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球石油开采设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Global Oil Services,
Drilling & Equipment
MENA Onshore Market Set
for Positive Surprise
Strong outlook for Onshore E&C market in Middle
East: In our report Onshore Market Set for Positive
Surprise, dated March 22, we presented a detailed,
bottom-up analysis of upcoming Engineering &
Construction contracts in the Middle East and North
Africa. We were surprised by two things. 1) The value of
planned contract awards is bigger than we thought
currently adding up to $432bn. This equals roughly 6
years of order intake at the record level of 2009. Even if
some of these projects are cancelled, this underpins
several years of strong order flow in this market. This
amount does not take into account projects in Iran and
Iraq which should add another $162bn and $134bn
respectively. 2) The bidding activity of European
contractors is higher than we expected, which lead us to
upgrade our earnings estimates.
Tecnicas Reunidas is our preferred play amongst
European names. It is a pure-play onshore E&C
company that derives approximately 50% of revenues
from the Middle East. We believe the company is well
positioned to benefit from the strong outlook in this
market and initiate with an Overweight. See our
separate report Preferred Play on Middle East E&C
Market, dated March 22.
We Upgraded Saipem and Technip to Overweight.
These firms are also likely to be key beneficiaries: we
estimate they are currently bidding on contracts worth
$34bn and $62bn respectively in the MENA region and
hence see potential for order intake to surprise positively.
For Saipem, we believe consensus expectations for
2011/12 do not fully reflect the likely revenues from the
newbuild offshore construction vessels.

Table of Contents
Investment Perspective Page 2
MENA Onshore Market Set for Positive Surprise Page 3
Contract Drilling Markets Page 4
Jackup Dayrates: Historical and Forecast Page 7
Floater Dayrates: Historical and Forecast Page 8
Morgan Stanley Offshore Drilling Dayrates by Company Page 9
Expected Deliveries: Jackups and Floaters Page 10
US and International Rig Counts Page 11
Trading and Valuation Summary: Contract Drillers Page 12
Global Valuation and Ratings Summary Page 13
Trading and Valuation Summary: Oil Services and Drillers Page 14
Consensus Earnings Revisions and Short Interest Ratios Page 15
Morgan Stanley EPS Estimates vs. Consensus Page 16
Morgan Stanley Revenue Growth Projections by Area Page 18
Morgan Stanley EBIT Margins Projections by Area Page 19
Morgan Stanley Revenue & EBIT Estimates vs. Consensus Page 20
Consensus Outlook Page 24
Commodity Data and Global Economic Forecast Page 25
Newbuild Orderbook: Jackups and Floaters Page 27
Stocks Performance Review Page 29
Valuation Methodologies and Investment Risks Page 31

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