2010年3月俄罗斯地产行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：URALSIB CAPITAL
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
A BET ON MASS-HOUSING
Re-initiation of Coverage
Investment summary....................................................................................................................................................................2
Real estate market recovery led by mass-market housing ....................................................................................................4
Invest into mass-market driven upside ....................................................................................................................................8
LSR group: effective diversification leaves upside .....................................................................................................10
PIK undervalued: favorable business model................................................................................................................13
AFI development: uncertainty implies downside........................................................................................................15
Catalysts moving stocks...............................................................................................................................................................17
Risks differ ......................................................................................................................................................................................18
LSR group: A leading full-cycle developer ...............................................................................................................................19
PIK group: Rising after a knockdown ........................................................................................................................................24
AFI development: Project portfolio under high execution risks.............................................................................................29
Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................................................34

Mass-market housing drives upside. Hardest hit by the economic downturn, realestate
stocks now have the highest growth potential. With financing options still limited
and demand uncertain, we prefer mass-housing, which is set to provide visible and
regular cash flow in the near term. Supported by state injections for mass-market
purchases and mortgage financing, primary demand in the mass-housing market should
ensure this sub-sector recovers faster than other real-estate sectors in Russia. Strong
buying power in Moscow and St Petersburg will provide positive margins for developers
driven by the growing demand for building materials and services. On the other hand, low
demand and flat rental rates undermine the value of most projects in the prime
commercial space segment.
Buy LSR and PIK. LSR Group and PIK Group have clear control over execution and costs,
which leads to a fast project turnaround and high cost competitiveness. Being the
strongest mass-market brands, these two developers are expected to steadily regain their
ability to generate cash through presales, and thus reduce their financing needs. Both
companies have the capacity and expertise to address growing demand. We favor LSR
more because of its low solvency risks and diversification across the industry value chain.
For now, we recommend avoiding AFI Development (AFID), as its fundamental value is
based on a few long-term, high-cost commercial projects and distant cash flows. We
reinitiate coverage on the real-estate sector with Buy ratings on LSR and PIK and a Sell
rating on AFI Development.
REAL ESTATE MARKET RECOVERY LEAD BY HOUSING
Mass-market housing is in demand. We expect a strong recovery in demand for massmarket
housing in 2010; while supply is likely to be in deficit.
Moscow and St Petersburg lead the recovery. Following a moderate price correction,
the Moscow and St Petersburg regions lead a recovery in demand for mass-market
housing, meaning positive margins for developers.
Government injections to support demand. State bulk buying of mass-market housing
coupled with an $8.3 bln injection planned for 2010, targeted at easing mortgage terms,
is expeted to drive the residential mass-market.
Demand for commercial property still depressed. No rapid recovery is expected in the
saturated commercial market, as potential buyers remain wary of expansion plans.
INVEST IN MASS-MARKET-DRIVEN UPSIDE
LSR Group: effective diversification provides upside. LSR stock is undervalued on a
2011 EV/EBITDA basis by 28%, implying 63% upside to our 12 month target price of
$13.4/GDR.
PIK: undervalued, favorable business model. PIK is cheapest on a 2011E EV/EBITDA
basis, with a 41% discount to peers, providing 22% upside to our $6.3/GDR target price.
AFID: uncertainty implies downside. At a 120% premium to peers on a 2011E
EV/EBITDA, AFID’s stock has 50% downside to our target price of $1.1/GDR.
CATALYST MOVING STOCKS
Updates suggest property market recovery. Statistical data together with net asset
value (NAV) and cash collection updates will move equities of developers.
Speculative stock market events. LSR’s possible SPO at above market price may drive
the stock, while AFID may face a share overhang on sales by individuals.
RISKS DIFFER
Insolvency risks. With high short-term financing needs; equity offerings at the current
low share price levels imply dilution risks for minorities.
High execution risk for commercial projects. Execution risks are higher in the
commercial real-estate sector than in the residential sector, due to limited financing and
uncertain demand.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 地产行业 俄罗斯 研究报告 地产 行业 俄罗斯