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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月印度地产行业研究报告
【作者】：RELIGARE证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：76
【目录或简介】：
The BSE Realty Index has underperformed broader indices by 14% YTD and 22%
since October ’09. The sector remains a call on broader macro factors and on
asset prices, interspersed with company-specific restructuring (DLF-DAL, Unitech-
Unitech Infra). At the macro level, we expect robust GDP growth and increases in
key rates by ~100bps. Keeping this in mind and looking at current trends in
affordability, we see a marginal uptick but limited downside risk to asset prices.
We have a long-term positive view on the sector. Valuations are beginning to
look attractive though some near-term headwinds are likely in the form of
macro risks, stagnant absorption data and new IPOs, we recommend buying
selectively in companies that can surprise on the upside in terms of a) execution
(we launch our execution tracker with this report), and b) value unlocking, as
well as those trading at an unjustifiable discount to NAV. Our top picks are
Unitech and Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL) amongst the large caps, and Phoenix
Mills and Anant Raj Industries amongst the mid caps.
Residential sector views: We think a residential property price increase of ~10%
YoY in FY11 is possible – beyond this affordability falls and impacts volumes. Also,
average inventory levels are at 13 months and big price increases look unlikely.
Monthly absorption over the past three months has been lower MoM primarily due
to increasing prices. We expect absorption to be flat YoY for the next three months.
New launches would be skewed towards luxury homes, in our view.
Office space views: We are positive on office leasing. We expect the estimated
15% CAGR in new employee adds in the IT sector to result in higher leases YoY,
and to consequently increase capital values. Though average inventory levels
remain high, absorption is better paced. Further, with rentals bottoming out, the
growth in capital values should benefit developers with exposure to office space.
Execution tracker: Execution is going to be a key differentiator going forward.
With this report, we launch our quarterly tracker that pinpoints the actual
execution of projects. In terms of execution, we prefer DLF, Unitech and
Puravankara Projects in that order.
Investment view and recommendation: Following recent declines, sector
valuations are now attractive. There are some near-term headwinds in the form of
likely 10%+ headline inflation data, but we are biased positively towards the
sector. We think Unitech can surprise on execution. IBREL offers deep value,
though there are no visible near-term triggers. Amongst midcaps, Phoenix Mills is
an interesting play on consumption, and Anant Raj has momentum in terms
of launches.
Realty
Macro economic outlook 3
Residential segment views 5
Commercial space views 8
Valuation 12
Execution Tracker 13
Key near-term triggers 14
Key risks 15
Key assumptions 15
Companies
Anant Raj Industries Ltd 18
DLF Ltd 22
Godrej Properties Ltd 28
Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd 33
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd 37
Orbit Corporation Ltd 43
Peninsula Land Ltd 48
Phoenix Mills Ltd 52
Puravankara Projects Ltd 56
Unitech Ltd 60
Annexure 66
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