|
Australia's property slump.
Australia will see the world's biggest house price declines this year, according to leading credit rating agency Fitch. Oversupply and the withdrawal of foreign buyers including many from China have sent prices tumbling, with consequences for the broader economy. Phil Mercer reports from Sydney on one of the worst affected cities. Desperation is creeping into Australia's copy market. It suffered its steepest fall in prices since the global financial crisis in 2008 -- property market. Sydney is suffering the most. Melbourne has felt the pain as well. Everywhere you look, it is doom and gloom. I am really worried, I think it could be facing a 30% fall. They talk about the difficulty getting money, but I think it is more the Chinese buyers pulling out of the market which has really brought the market back down to earth. The housing market, which normally makes our economy buoyant and move forward, that is shrinking. You will find our economy will shrink as well. There is now an abundance of supply, including new housing development like this one in Sydney. They were built to satisfy demand that is now faded. The building boom and the absence of Chinese buyers tell only part of the story. Credit is also tight. It has become a lot harder to get a home loan in Australia because of tough new regulations designed to encourage more wreck doormat responsible lending by the banks. The credit squeeze is hurting the market is -- more responsible lending. Even though interest rates are at a record low. The concern is that tumbling house prices are affecting the broader economy. As they fall, fear sets in and Australians spend less on other goods and services. As households start to become worried about the future price of what really is your largest asset, for most households, the home that you live in, you start to become worried about paying off your mortgage and you start to spend less, and that is where we really start to see that we can as start to filter into the Australian economy. No-one knows when the slump will end. It is, though, good news for prospective buyers. Many are waiting to see how much further prices will fall. The last few years, it has been really frustrating watching prices continue to rise at a rate, but much relief now that they have started to come down, and we are certainly going to hang on in and see how much further they drop. There is a feeling that falling unemployment and new migrants will prevent a sharp crash. Falling prices are also good for first-time buyers, if they can get a loan. Phil Mercer joins us now from Sydney. So what is the latest on the numbers? Well, we are expecting to see new data about new house sales in Australia. They were down sharply in December, the expectation is the January will have fared no better. Overall, we are seeing a slump in prices right across the board. We have seen quite sharp falls in recent times, not only here in Sydney, prices down 10% in the past year, and 9% in Melbourne, but also falls in Brisbane and in Darwin as well. So the only capital city, the only major city in Australia, that is defying the slump is Hobart. But generally across the board there is, as we heard in the piece, plenty of doom and gloom. Indeed, plenty of doom and this credit squeeze is adding to that doom and gloom. When you speak to people in the market, they say that the credit squeeze is having an almighty effect on the market. And the reason for that is that it is making it a lot harder for people to get a home loan, and the reason for that is that we have had a Royal Commission here in Australia in recent times the investigating misconduct in the banking and financial sectors, and one thing to come out of that Royal Commission was scathing criticism of predatory and reckless practices by some lenders. So in response to that, regulators and the watchdog have clamped down on that sort of lending, and that is filtering through now into the broader housing markets. And what our property analysts telling you? When are we likely to see the bottom of this market? With all things to do with the economy, it is impossible to say. Some real estate agents believe we could see falls well above that 10% drop we have seen in Sydney in the past 12 months, perhaps another 10% drop this year. And with all things to do with the economy, where there are losers, there are also winners. If you are looking to buy a house here in Sydney, for example, many prospective buyers simply sitting on their hands waiting to see how far the market will drop to try to snare a bargain. But in answer to your question, I think in the next few months, possibly the next year, the only way we are going to see prices going is further falls.
| 
发帖
雷达卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
