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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月欧洲制药行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：55
【目录或简介】：
Still significant value in Pharma – we see material
upside to ROIC, earnings and multiples as Pharma
withdraws from most internal small molecule
research and reallocates capital to in-licensing and
other non-pharma assets. Worsening generic pressure
and R&D management changes lead us to expect
material cuts to internal small research spend (~40%
total R&D) in 2010/11, after a decade of dismal internal
R&D returns. We expect AZN and sanofi to be among
the leaders in externalizing research, and this is a key
driver of our upgrade of AZN today to Overweight.
Reinvestment of internal research savings into
in-licensing will yield three times the likely return,
we calculate. Under in-licensing deals, downside risk for
pharma companies is currently materially lower than for
internally developed drugs. Although upside is also
capped by pay-aways and milestone obligations, the net
present value of these payments is more than offset by
the lower risk-adjusted invested capital. Over one-third
of pharma R&D spend is in pre-phase II, where the
probability of reaching the market is <10%. Our
proprietary analysis indicates that, unless the probability
of an in-house molecule reaching the market is 30% or
more, the risk-adjusted Economic Value Added, or EVA,
is three times higher under the external research model,
with a greater predictability.
Sector valuations are still too low. Current valuations
are discounting terminal growth rates of up to -10%, on
our estimates. We think this is unrealistic, given the
industry has adopted many of the precepts of our
Pharma 2.0 model and focused on core commercial
competences, and we expect industry fundamentals to
improve. Our increased price targets reflect accelerating
adoption of Pharma 2.0 strategies, in-licensing and R&D
savings. Roche and AZN remain our favoured names in
the group.
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