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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月日本房地产行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
Further demand dip likely in longer term, but near term brings expectations
of government support measures, and few stocks face equity financing risk
Although the equity market is rebounding gradually following a series of major
financings and the BoJ’s emergency meeting aimed at correcting a strong yen, we
think a real recovery is some way off. Based on this assumption, our near-term
recommendation among the domestic-demand sectors we cover (housing, real
estate, J-REITs) is the housing sector.
Additional economic stimulus measures in the second supplementary budget for
FY3/10 include an eco-point system for housing. This system allots points for
homeowners installing double-sash fixtures such as windows and exterior-wall
insulation. In addition, the Japan Housing Finance Agency’s Flat 35S scheme cuts
the interest rate on a fixed-rate mortgage by 1.0ppt for the first 10 years, while
Cabinet has approved raising the tax threshold for cash gifts to ¥15m if they are
used for housing purchases. We think these initiatives are very likely to spur
housing starts in FY3/11.
However, with a longer-term view seeing concerns of a demand decline intact, we
would shift our recommendation to the real estate sector on signs that the
economy is recovering.
Sekisui House, PanaHome are Buys; downgrade Sumitomo Forestry to Hold
We revise our earnings forecasts and target prices for the four detached-housing
manufacturers. We downgrade Sumitomo Forestry to Hold from Buy following a
period of firm performance by the stock, but maintain our other ratings. Our sector
highlights are (1) Sekisui House, where we forecast strong FY3/11 profit growth,
and (2) PanaHome, where valuations still look attractive. We have Hold ratings on
Sumitomo Forestry and Daiwa House Industry: both have had a period of good
performance, and investors view them as mildly high equity-financing risks. See
Figure 2 on P.3 for details on change.
Valuation and risks
Our target prices continue to use a forecast FY3/10 P/B of 0.9-1.0x. We use P/B
because the current economic climate clouds the profit outlook for FY3/11 and
after and thus undermines the P/E option. We base our P/B multiple on the
relationship between (1) medium-term (FY3/11 and after) RoE, (2) cost of capital
([1.5% risk-free rate + 5.0% risk premium] x [beta]), and (3) the potential growth
rate. Although we expect conditions for housing companies to remain difficult in
the near term, we see government initiatives providing support. Risks include (1)
the macro-economy remaining much weaker than we expect and (2) the
government being unable to deliver additional support measures in this scenario.
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