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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月尼日利亚银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Two high-risk ideas on very depressed valuations –
raising GTBank and Diamond Bank to Overweight:
As Nigeria’s banking industry heals itself post-crisis, we
believe GT and Diamond offer an opportunity to capture
strong structural growth and the potential resurgence of
a stock market that has diverged from the ROW by
failing to rally. Both banks appear adequately
provisioned and well positioned to take advantage of
new lending opportunities as Nigeria reflates, the
industry consolidates, and the central bank cleans up
the banking system with 'bad banks' and other tools.
Some of the lowest P/Es among GEM banks: For
2011e, GT trades on 5.5x P/E and Diamond on 3.6x P/E
(see page 10). These multiples are not reflective of
fundamentals but, rather, the legacy of excessive
leverage in the capital market. Our new price targets
imply upside of 41% for GT and 48% for Diamond.
Unwinding of excess system leverage is weighing
heavily on the stock market: Banks are recouping
margin loans, which is exerting downward pressure on
the stock exchange as borrowers sell shares to meet
payments that fall due. Encouragingly, there are plans
for a ‘bad bank’ to buy margin loans and other toxic
assets. We calculate potential recovery of N180-360bn
on share-backed loans marked to market, assuming the
NSE index recovers to the levels of EM peers.
Good growth prospects: The opportunity is for GT and
Diamond to improve profitability during the recovery by
gaining share, improving pricing power and sustaining
high margins as the industry consolidates. Our forecasts
imply that by 2011 market share gains contribute 58% of
net profit for GT and 32% for Diamond.
Risks are high: While a rebound in asset prices could
bring additional upside potential, there are risks of
further write-downs, as well as significant political and
transparency issues. See our SWOT analysis on page 2
for an overview of the Nigerian banking landscape.
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