汇丰银行：尼日利亚银行业研究报告2009年8月(免费)

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Recent banks bail-out marks a turning
point for the Nigerian banking system
􀀗 We revisit prospects for M&A involving
both domestic and South African banks;
we see limited flexibility
􀀗 Value is starting to appear but caution
leads us to lower our forecasts and TPs
for the five banks we cover; our top
picks remain GTB (new TP NGN15.2
from NGN19.0) and UBA (new TP
NGN14.7 from NGN20.0), both OW(V)
It wasn’t the bail-out itself but the scope: A bank failure in
Nigeria was probably always a possibility. But the Central Bank
of Nigeria’s (CBN) takeover of five banks at once, three of
them systemically important (and all outside our coverage),
through a NGN400bn (USD2.6bn) capital injection, and
removing their boards and executives, sent a shockwave
through the system when announced on 14 August 2009.
M&A revisited: With the CBN looking for investors in the
banks, we reassess M&A options in Nigeria. Domestic mergers,
forced or otherwise, cannot be excluded, in our view. What
about South African banks? We assess their financial flexibility
but given the still fragile environment, we see their role in
Nigeria as limited.
Earnings and valuations cut: Recent bank updates, structural
changes and higher cost-of-risk cause us to cut our earnings
estimates by an average of c16%. We also cease to credit the
banks for excess capital in our valuations, leading to an average
c30% cut for our five target prices.
Low multiples and end of bank audits should help: The
planned mid-September close of CBN’s audit of the country’s
banks will also reassure. The less-than-5x 2010e P/E and c30%
discount to book underpin a re-rating of Nigerian banks against
emerging market peers. Having passed the CBN audit, our
preferred stocks remain GTB (target price NGN15.2, cut from
NGN19.0) and UBA (target price NGN14.7, cut from
NGN20.0), both rated Overweight (V).

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