2010年1月全球物流行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月全球物流行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
The cycle has turned and stocks are up. Freight volumes
are recovering, but don’t expect a swift return to the
strong flows and earnings growth prior to the slump
􀀗 Prospects in developing markets are still strong but
capacity overhang and slowing of off-shoring of
production will dampen prices and demand
􀀗 Hence, smarter growth plans are needed in this up-cycle.
Our ratings assess operating leverage and valuation but
also growth strategy, market position and finances
Freight volumes: recovery will continue. This year, we expect seafreight and parcel
volumes to grow by 4% and airfreight by 6%. Back in 2003, recovery was much
quicker but the 2002 downturn was a blip for global trade. This time we think
fragility of the global economy, risks from removal of stimulus and also slowing of
off-shoring of production - a key driver of demand for supply chain services for 20
years - will impact. Pricing: recovery here may prove even more sluggish due to
overhang in air-freighter, containership and domestic parcel network capacity.
Forecasts: despite our cautious outlook, our 2010-11 forecasts were looking too
low. Volumes are a bit better and structural cost savings are flowing more quickly.
Hence, our 2010 aggregate forecasts are lifted by 8% for our companies, suggesting
a c29% recovery in profits this year. However profits would still be 26% down on
the 2007 peak. Stock picks: generally we prefer parcels: less capacity overhang and
a better structural growth story. Of these, Deutsche Post-DHL and UPS (both O/W
V) are well placed strategically. FedEx (N/V) is up with events. TNT (U/W V), to
us, still appears too narrowly focused to generate acceptable cross-cycle growth. We
remain U/W (V) on Mærsk; container shipping is still a potent value-trap despite
some pick up in volumes and rates. On the forwarders, DSV (N/V) and Kuehne
(N/V) are up with events but Panalpina still looks cheap and we upgrade to O/W (V)
from N/V. Deutsche and UPS are our key Overweights and should outperform. TNT
and Mærsk remain our key Underweight ratings.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 物流行业 行业研究 Supply Chain 汇丰银行 研究报告 物流行业 stocks expect

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