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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月日本电力行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Still In-Line on Utilities Industry: Share price
correction has brought 5-EPCO average F3/10 P/B to
1.1x and dividend yield to 2.7%, levels where further
downside is limited. Yet we also see little reason for
sentiment to improve via growth in discretionary cash
flow as a driver of market cap growth and clearing of
environmental policy uncertainty. For us to turn bullish,
we need to confirm changes in the macro climate, such
as the return to a defensive stock market.
Limited scope for rise in market cap fuelled by
discretionary CF: We expect 5-EPCOs’ discretionary
CF to bottom out in F3/09 and to recover to dividend
coverage levels from F3/11 on. But the market is not
optimistic that cash flow will rise to levels that enhance
expectations for dividend hikes and share buybacks.
Thus, we think EPCO share prices in the next 2-3 years
will be capped on the upside by dividend yields.
Environmental policy doubt a drag on sentiment:
With the conclusion of COP 15 in Dec. 2009,
discussions have started on domestic measures such as
a “Feed in Tariff” program for all renewables and the
introduction of environment tax. But details of cost hikes
related to such policies, and the scheme for cost
transference to electricity rates remain unclear. Though
we expect most of the cost of tougher environmental
policy to be passed on to electricity rates, avoiding
severe damage to utilities’ profitability (ROA), we think
ongoing uncertainty over specific measures could
lessen utilities’ incentives to grow profits.
Bullish only on TEPCO with catalysts to override
the policy concern: But our view on fundamentals
does not apply to all firms equally. We believe TEPCO
can absorb the environmental policy uncertainty as the
phased restart of Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear plant
lowers its fuel cost sharply. We don’t think the stock has
fully priced in the potential profit recovery for the firm.
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