2010年1月土耳其电力行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月土耳其电力行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：

Turkey's power demand growth should
outstrip supply growth over 2010-20
􀀗 Low-cost clean generators and grid
owners will reap the benefits the most
􀀗 Top pick: Akenerji – OW(V) – prime
beneficiary of the current outlook;
Sabanci Holding (N(V)) a long-term play;
Zorlu Enerji (N(V)) offers limited upside
Demand should outpace supply between 2010 and 2020:
Power demand in Turkey contracted by 2.5% in 2009,
covering the problem of short supply experienced in 2006-
08. However, we believe power demand growth will outpace
GDP growth in 2010-20, as is often the case in emerging
economies. We project 7% annual growth based on 4-5%
long-term GDP forecast, low penetration (2.58MWh/per
capita vs OECD average of 8.65) and a strong demographic
growth rate and industrialisation. We calculate supply growth
will be unable to meet this until at least 2015. This should
lead to strong pricing in the free market (+7% pa).
Profitability largely depends on generation type: Turkish
IPPs generate 80% of output from oil-based fuels, exposing
them to commodity price fluctuations. The state-controlled
gas market brings additional uncertainty. We believe that,
despite lower efficiency and higher capex needs, companies
that invest in renewables will see higher profitability;
renewable price regulation may offer an upside risk.
Higher prices for privatisations: Privatisations in 2009
were at a 30% premium vs 2008. This implies higher
valuations for SEDAS and BEDAS, owned by Akenerji and
Sabanci Holding, which we believe is not acknowledged by
the market. The government’s privatisation agenda is full,
with the 11 remaining distribution regions (four next month)
and 10GW of generation capacity in 2010.
Top pick: Akenerji OW(V); Sabanci Holding N(V) is a
longer-term play: Akenerji is our conviction play as it is
the prime beneficiary of our theme – it will generate onequarter
of its power from renewables in 2010, offers the
highest EPS growth in our universe and owns a distribution
asset. We believe the value offered by Zorlu Enerji is
limited, especially after its strong rally in 2009, but we
upgrade to N(V) on a higher valuation. Sabanci Holding’s
plan to increase capacity aggressively should bear fruit in
2011 – hence, we see it as a longer-term play.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 电力行业 土耳其 研究报告 行业 电力 土耳其