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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月全球黄金行业研究报告
【作者】：CORMARK
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
、The five senior gold producers we are highlighting in this report are all facing
similar challenges in the current gold price environment: i) providing growth,
ii) maintaining costs, and iii) delivering on targets.
Over the last six months, these gold producers have generally had a difficult
time responding to these challenges and their shares have lagged
accordingly. The average return for the senior producers group since July 1
has been -4.4% compared to 16.0% for the gold price and 14.2% for the
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), indicating investment capital has
shifted down cap to the mid-tier and junior companies, in response to an
increase in investors’ growth and risk appetite.
How the companies respond to these challenges in 2010 and beyond will
likely dictate whether the capital flow returns and drives multiples higher –
providing share price appreciation in the absence of material increases in the
price of gold.
Our revised target prices are derived using an equal weighting of P/NAV and
P/CF target multiples that are based primarily on the company’s size, trading
liquidity, growth, margins, political risk and base metal contribution. We
believe using a NAV component in our target generation is important as it
accounts for the longer term impacts of changes to project economics,
particularly capital costs, which are a key aspect for mining companies. We
also include a CFPS component to account for the near-term impacts of
changes to the company’s profitability and performance.
The valuation comparison reveals the risk-reward conundrum when investing
in the senior gold sector. Goldcorp and Agnico-Eagle, companies that we
believe provide the best combination of growth and risk, trade at the group’s
highest multiples. Barrick and Kinross, which are well-managed, high quality
companies that are lacking the growth and risk qualities of Goldcorp and
Agnico-Eagle, trade at lower multiples. As such, all are ideal investments
depending on one’s risk-reward appetite.
Yamana stands out with, what we believe, is the best risk-reward scenario in
the peer group. The company finally has lower execution risk after several
years of intense project development but still trades at a discount to its
peers, providing what we believe is the peer group’s best value appreciation
scenario.
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