2009年12月南非铂金行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月南非铂金行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：93
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .....................................................................7
PGM market themes ................................................................................................... 7
Equity ratings and performance outlook ..................................................................... 9
Competitive positioning............................................................................................ 12
Auto markets – crucial for PGMs demand ...........................14
Eskom shocks miners............................................................18
Introduction............................................................................................................... 18
Costs impact of power tariff hikes for the SA precious metals miners ..................... 19
Eskom has moderated its tariff increase proposals ................................................... 20
Why platinum miners might ultimately be insulated from the Eskom shock ........... 21
The state of play at Eskom........................................................................................ 22
Eskom’s project pipeline and financing projections ................................................. 24
Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 26
Forecasts, valuations, sensitivity analysis & Price targets 28
Currency and metal price assumptions ..................................................................... 28
EPS forecasts summary............................................................................................. 28
The value the market places on free cash flow per production ounce for the
producers we cover ................................................................................................... 29
DCF- based valuations and price targets................................................................... 31
Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................... 33
Anglo Platinum .......................................................................34
Description................................................................................................................ 34
Key model changes - operational outlook improving ............................................... 34
Cost base reduction ................................................................................................... 35
Historical and forecast costs, capex and production ................................................. 36
Major downgrade of FY09E EPS ............................................................................. 36
The balance sheet – rights issue or no rights issue? .................................................. 37
Investment arguments and risks................................................................................ 38
Key catalysts for rerating .......................................................................................... 39
Constituents of our DCF valuation ........................................................................... 39
Investment conclusion .............................................................................................. 40
Aquarius Platinum Limited ....................................................42
Description................................................................................................................ 42
Key model changes................................................................................................... 42
Investment arguments and risks................................................................................ 45
Key catalysts for rerating .......................................................................................... 46
Constituents of our DCF valuation ........................................................................... 46
Investment conclusion .............................................................................................. 47
Eastern Platinum Ltd..............................................................49
Description................................................................................................................ 49
Key model changes................................................................................................... 49
Investment arguments and risks................................................................................ 50
Key catalysts for rerating .......................................................................................... 51
Constituents of our DCF valuation ........................................................................... 51
Investment conclusion .............................................................................................. 52
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd ...............................................54
Description................................................................................................................ 54
Key model changes................................................................................................... 55
Investment arguments and risks................................................................................ 58
Key catalysts for rerating .......................................................................................... 59
Constituents of our DCF valuation ........................................................................... 60
Investment conclusion .............................................................................................. 60
Lonmin plc ..............................................................................62
Description................................................................................................................ 62
Key model changes................................................................................................... 63
Investment arguments and risks................................................................................ 66
Key catalysts for rerating .......................................................................................... 66
Constituents of our DCF valuation ........................................................................... 68
Investment conclusion .............................................................................................. 68
Northam Platinum Ltd............................................................70
Description................................................................................................................ 70
Key model changes................................................................................................... 70
Investment arguments and risks................................................................................ 73
Key catalysts for rerating .......................................................................................... 73
Constituents of our DCF valuation ........................................................................... 74
Investment conclusion .............................................................................................. 75

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