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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国电影行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：66
【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: As we enter 2010, we expect
film industry trends to remain challenging in stark
contrast to trends in the broader media sector, which are
improving materially. We expect domestic box office
attendance to decrease 3% compared with the 5-6%
gains witnessed in 2009 as the economy improves and
counter-cyclical benefits reverse somewhat. While price
increases from a growing 3-D film slate should benefit
the top-line, we expect exhibitors to experience a
mix-shift from 85% gross margin concession revenue,
which is driven by attendance, towards 45-50% gross
margin admissions revenue, driving our EBITDA
estimates below consensus.
Downgrading Cinemark to Underweight in-line with
box office view and slower growth vs. rest of media:
Over the past ten months, CNK shares have narrowed
the valuation gap with RGC and appear less attractive
on a relative basis. Further, we expect both RGC and
CNK to post EPS declines in 2010 compared to an
average of 15% growth for the rest of the media group.
As a result, within the context of our Attractive industry
view of Media, we now rate both RGC and CNK UW.
Shift to rental expected to continue: In home video,
while Blu-ray and digital should again be accretive, we
expect the migration from purchases to rentals to
continue to pressure studio margins. We believe that in
2010E total rental revenues will grow 8% vs. a 11%
decline in sell-through revenue, slightly better than
2009E with a 7% growth and 13% decline, respectively.
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