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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国分子诊断行业研究报告
【作者】：Willam Blair
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Respiratory and C. Difficile Testing Moves Toward Molecular
Diagnostics; MRSA Surveillance Testing Growth Still Uncertain
Survey and phone follow-up. We sent a survey with 32 questions to 630 professionals
in diagnostics and conducted phone interviews with 15 respondents.
Cepheid, Gen-Probe Incorporated, and Qiagen were the highest-ranked
molecular diagnostic companies. From an investment standpoint, we believe
the companies that are viewed most favorably by users have the highest franchise
value and should be the stocks to focus on for the long term.
Below are highlights from each section and any impact on names in our
coverage list that compete in each space.
MRSA surveillance: 1) The number of tests performed per day dropped slightly
year-over-year. 2) There is still no consensus about which patient population
should be screened. 3) Cepheid continues to have the dominant position in the
market. 4) The economic downturn does not seem to have affected expansion
plans for MRSA.
We continue to believe MRSA surveillance is unlikely to grow signifi cantly without
externally driven dramatic measures. The net effect is neutral for Cepheid.
C. diffi cile: 1) Half of the respondents indicated they primarily use rapid tests,
down from 72% last year. 2) Satisfaction increased, as labs have begun using
higher-sensitivity molecular tests. 3) Many labs are moving to a model of common
antigen testing followed by toxin testing. This was unexpected and is affecting
Meridian’s rapid tests and initial uptake of molecular tests.
We believe the trend toward molecular C. diffi cile testing is accelerating; the net
effect is positive for Cepheid, neutral for Gen-Probe, and negative for Meridian.
Respiratory virus testing: 1) Rapid antigen tests remain in broad use in the
hospital, but sensitivity is perceived to be low. 2) With higher sensitivity, improving
turnaround times, and a growing installed base, molecular tests appear poised
to gain share. 3) Of the molecular tests used today, Prodesse (Gen-Probe) had
surprising uptake despite a small salesforce, and while Luminex has had decent
uptake, users seem more cautious about its multiplex panel.
We believe that as more molecular offerings become available, conversion away
from hospital-based rapid antigen testing will occur. This should accelerate if tests
are fast enough to service outpatients. The net effect is positive for Cepheid and
Gen-Probe, neutral for Luminex, neutral to negative for Meridian, and negative
for Quidel.
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