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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国光伏行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：93
【目录或简介】：
Clean Tech
Solar: Strong Demand,
Slower ASP Declines; Favor
FSLR on Scale and Costs
We are initiating coverage of three US solar stocks
as part of our new clean tech industry coverage.
Cross-currents in the group dictate our In-Line view. We
expect a 3-year CAGR of 35% in solar photovoltaic
installations, offset by a continued but modest 10–15%
annual drop in module ASPs. Select companies,
including FSLR, should see higher growth and less ASP
pressure by 1) offering customers attractive economics,
2) selling bankable products (for which customers can
obtain financing), and 3) being positioned for vertical
integration to optimize production planning.
First Solar (FSLR, Overweight, target $150) is our
top pick; our 2011e EPS is ~16% above consensus.
We believe the market is too pessimistic on First Solar’s
ASP development. Based on conversations with the
company’s customers in the US and Europe, we believe
First Solar will be able to realize higher module ASPs
than the market expects. This is because customers are
able to obtain better financing to install First Solar
modules than peer products that are less tested. The
market could also be underestimating module margins
in its systems business, where we believe margins are
higher than standalone module sales and will face less
pricing pressure going forward.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR, Equal-weight) has a
proprietary technology with option value. The
company’s pricing premium in the residential segment is
under threat, but the company has the potential to
rapidly reduce production costs by moving production to
China. Uncertainty about how the company will be able
to fund its capital requirements keep us on the sideline.
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER, Underweight,
target $5) is likely to struggle. We believe the cost
structure is too high to compete for most projects, the
market for low-load bearing roofs has proven smaller
than expected, and balance sheet weakness could limit
flexibility and complicate project financing.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ………….… 3
We expect a 30%+ CAGR in solar installations over the next three years as module prices continue to fall and new
markets open up; however, growth will remain choppy during periods when subsidy schemes are adjusted in key
markets. We include here a solar primer and a summary of our new coverage: FSLR (Overweight), ESLR
(Equal-weight), and ENER (Underweight).
Key Investor Debates ………….… 4
What is the supply/demand and pricing outlook?
Where is solar a relevant technology?
What is bankable; how important is bankability?
Does vertical integration create value?
Stock Picks in Context of Our Industry Debates ………….… 7
Drivers of Stock Performance ………….… 8
Government policy: Over the short and medium term, this will be the major driver of stock performance.
Availability of financing: Arguably the second most important driver given the high capital costs of solar installations.
Supply chain management/production: A key driver in the mid-2000s…
Thin-film manufacturers: A play on polycrystalline silicon prices, which was another key driver in the mid-2000s.
Correlation with oil: Solar has become less correlated with oil; long term, we expect correlation with natural gas.
Drivers of Competitive Positioning ………….… 10
How Will Supply/Demand Play Out Over 12–24 Months? ………….… 11
Our view: Frequent supply/demand imbalances should continue; but the decline in ASPs should moderate. The
best-positioned companies will be cost leaders and have strong balance sheet to weather boom and bust cycles.
Where Is Solar a Relevant Technology? ………….… 16
Our view: Solar is most relevant where there are high and predictable subsidies; however, with 40% module price
declines since 2008, solar is becoming more competitive with other renewables.
What Is Bankable; How Important Is Bankability? ………….… 20
Our view: The ability to obtain financing for a manufacturer’s module is an underappreciated yet critical component
to solar companies’ success. To be "bankable," a solar company must have a long and verifiable in-field operating
history and a strong balance sheet and/or strong profit outlook.
Does Vertical Integration Create Value? ………….… 22
Our view: Vertical integration into downstream installation and energy markets is balance sheet-intensive, but
provides a necessary level of visibility into future demand for large companies.
Valuation ………….… 24
Given the boom-and-bust cycle we expect to reoccur in solar, earnings-based valuation methodologies are likely to
prove unreliable as earnings will tend to surprise significantly on the upside (30–100%) and the downside (30–50%)
in as short a period as 2 quarters. Residual income can serve as a guidepost to help remove near-term sentiment.
First Solar (FSLR): Overweight ………….… 26
…the only US-based solar company that can compete with top-tier Chinese manufacturers on scale and price in the
utility-scale and commercial rooftop markets.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Equal-weight ………….… 35
…technology requires little polycrystalline silicon, but its advantages have fallen with the silicon price.
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER): Underweight ………….… 40
…competitive only in small-volume niche markets that are insufficient to fill planned 270 MW of capacity.
Appendices and Financial Models ………….… 52
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