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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月全球新兴市场投资策略报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：62
【目录或简介】：
The promise of ‘jam tomorrow’ has often been used to justify high
saving and investment to increase future prosperity and
consumption. A variant, recently typified by China and other Asian
economies, has been to produce lots of ‘jam today’ – but for
someone else to eat. Given the fall in developed world demand, it is
time for such countries to consume more themselves; today not
tomorrow. Many governments have boosted public spending to
offset falling external demand, but this can only be a short-term
palliative. Sustaining growth will eventually require increased private
sector spending, particularly consumption.
How difficult will this be? To shed light on this, we evaluate
economic development theories, consider Japan’s experience and
that of other markets where economies have ‘matured’, analyse the
efficiency of investment, the response of household consumption to
changes in income levels and look at how China and other markets
are rising to the challenge.
There remains much scope to increase emerging market (EM)
investment in an efficient way. But it still begs the question of who
consumes the associated future output. This is where domestic
consumption needs to kick in. But it is more difficult to change
household spending patterns than for governments to stimulate
demand directly via investment. Private consumption will be
influenced by a range of variables including credit availability,
institutional reform, the prevailing distribution of income,
urbanisation trends, the efficacy of social safety nets, the level of
pension provision and cultural characteristics. The supply-side
response of domestic producers will also be critical. Sustainable EM
decoupling will require structural changes to boost domestic
absorption, especially consumption. Economies like China are now
taking steps to achieve this and the results are encouraging. But this
transition will take time. In the interim weakness in the developed
world will likely remain a drag on EM growth.
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