2010年4月全球新兴市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球新兴市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：83
        【目录或简介】：

Themes of the month
􀂄 Petrobras Capex and Regulatory Outlook: Watch for Spending Spree
􀂄 Initiation of Coverage: BUMA, Axis Bank and Canara Bank
􀂄 DB’s Commodities Quarterly Outlook: Bullish on Grains
Airlines
􀂄 Brazil may allow foreign ownership of local airlines to rise to 49% from 20%
􀂄 Gol’s and TAM’s most recent traffic metrics show further improvement
Beef Producers
􀂄 Marfrig receives consent from bondholders to amend bonds indentures
􀂄 Minerva and Marfrig deny merger press reports
Cement, Construction & Homebuilders
􀂄 Cade set limits to Votorantim’s and Camargo Correa's skake in Cimpor
Consumer Products, Food, Sugar & Ethanol
􀂄 Arcos Dorados 2009 sales exceeded company’s expectations
􀂄 Cosan and Shell announce further details on proposed joint-venture
Metals and Mining
􀂄 CSN plans Casa de Pedra IPO by mid-2010
􀂄 Vale proposes an 80-90% increase in iron ore prices
Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals
􀂄 Petrobras plans to increases its 2010-14 investment plan by up to 26%
􀂄 Pemex plans to invest US$19.1bn in 2010
Pulp, Paper and Wood Products
􀂄 Fibria announces price hikes and seeks further de-leveraging in 2010
Telecom and Media
􀂄 Telemar reportedly considering international expansion
􀂄 Televisa, Telefonica and Megacable to partner for dark fiber auction in Mexico
Utilities & Other
􀂄 AES Gener brings 95% of its operating capacity back to normal
􀂄 Transelec is at full operating capacity after earthquake
Asia Highlights
􀂄 Updates on Berlian Laju Tanker, China Property, Fajar Surya Wisesa, Hopson
Development, Indika Energy, National Agricultural Cooperative Federation
(NACF), New World Development and Sino-Forest

Table of Contents
Market Commentary ......................................................................... 4
April 2010: - a positive closing of the first quarter of the year...................................................4
Summary Top Picks........................................................................... 5
Summary of changes in recommendations ..............................................................................7
Key Themes........................................................................................ 8
Petrobras Capex and Regulatory Update ..................................................................................8
Initiation of Coverage - BUMA: PTBMMU’14 offers value ......................................................13
Initiation of Coverage - India Banks’ UT2 debt: Initiate on Axis and Canara with a CreditHold14
Commodities quarterly............................................................................................................15
Commodity Views...................................................................................................................16
Comodities Outlook - Executive Summary..............................................................................17
Crude Oil - Running of the Bulls ..............................................................................................18
Industrial Metals - Overheating Risks In China........................................................................19
Agriculture..............................................................................................................................21
New issue deal round up ................................................................ 23
EM new issuance....................................................................................................................23
LatAm Issuance for 2010 Year-to-Date ...................................................................................26
EMEA Issuance for 2010 Year-to-Date....................................................................................27
Asian Issuance for 2010 Year-to-Date .....................................................................................28
Other Financing Highlights......................................................................................................29
Distressed Credit Status .........................................................................................................30
Credit Rating Actions ...................................................................... 32
General Market Conditions .....................................................................................................32
Latam rating evolution ............................................................................................................32
EMEA ratings evolution...........................................................................................................33
Asia Credit Rating Action Highlights .......................................................................................37
Management Moves........................................................................ 39
Industry News.................................................................................. 40
Airlines ...................................................................................................................................40
Beef Producers .......................................................................................................................41
Cement, construction and homebuilders ................................................................................41
Consumer, Food, Sugar & Ethanol..........................................................................................42
Metals and Mining ..................................................................................................................43
Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals ......................................................................................................45
Pulp, Paper and Wood Products .............................................................................................47
TMT – Technology, Media and Telecom.................................................................................48
Utilities ...................................................................................................................................49
Financial Institutions................................................................................................................50
Others ....................................................................................................................................51
Asia Highlights................................................................................. 52
Berlian Laju Tanker..................................................................................................................52
China Property ........................................................................................................................52
Fajar Surya Wisesa..................................................................................................................53
Hopson Development.............................................................................................................54
Indika Energy ..........................................................................................................................55
National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (NACF)..............................................................56
New World Development .......................................................................................................56
Sino Forest.............................................................................................................................58
Asia Credit Strategy – Relative Value Monitor.........................................................................59
Earnings Results .............................................................................. 62
4Q09: A preview for 2010.......................................................................................................62
Top Picks–Rationale and Risks ....................................................... 67
Annex A –Recent Publications........................................................ 79

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