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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球新兴市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：95
【目录或简介】：
We are upgrading South Africa to overweight and downgrading
Brazil to underweight. With this move, we are now predicting that the
two largest markets, Brazil and China, will underperform MSCI EM.
This does not make us bearish on EM equities. MSCI EM is up 4% ytd
even with Brazil and China's underperformance.
• South Africa offers a positive growth surprise, countercyclical
accommodative monetary policy versus the rest of EM, strong earnings
recovery in 2010 and relatively attractive valuations.
• The Brazilian economy is booming. Our 2010 GDP growth forecast is
7%; the highest in 25 years. Consistent with higher growth, the SELIC
rate is forecast to increase from 8.75% to 12.25% by end 2010. In our
view, the market is too complacent on the pace of normalization and
eventual tightening. Beijing's efforts to slow investment growth could
have significant implications on Brazil's commodity exports.
• The strategy team view Taiwan IT, Korean and Taiwan Financials as
attractive contrarian trades (see page 8).
• Our key trades ranked by conviction are:
• Earnings revisions
• Growth surprise from developed, not emerging,
economies. Overweight Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey
plus technology and transportation
• QR, not QE, in EM. Underweight asset inflation plays
• Macro policy and rising inflation are a drag for the
consensus EM consumption trade
• OW Mexico
• The fundamental risk to EM equities is if inflation continues to
increase in 2H10. Other risk factors are: trade wars, rapid fiscal
consolidation in developed economies, commodity volatility and
political cycle. For more on risks, see page 11.
• Key asset allocation calls:
OW: Taiwan, India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey and the Philippines
OW: Technology and transportation
UW: China, Brazil and Israel
UW: Telecoms and Utilities
Table of Contents
The Thriving Third to Avoid.....................................................3
Contrarian Hunter.....................................................................8
Risks to our strategy..............................................................11
Global emerging markets model portfolio by country ........16
Global emerging markets model portfolio by sector...........17
Key Trades ..............................................................................18
Brazil: Growth at a 25 year high............................................28
China: May stage a rally in April and May ............................30
South Korea: Towards domestics in 2H10...........................32
Taiwan: Earnings surprises begin ........................................34
Russia: Benefits if ERP reduces ...........................................36
India: Policy normalization to accelerate .............................38
South Africa: Upgrade to OW................................................40
Mexico: Cyclical Macro Momentum......................................42
Malaysia: Macro factors lifting the market ...........................44
Thailand: Back to fundamentals ...........................................46
Indonesia: Right direction in the price .................................48
Turkey: Cyclical view… secular trend ..................................50
Philippines: Stay the course .................................................52
Extended markers ..................................................................55
Consensus Asset Allocation .................................................57
Hindsight trades: What has worked......................................58
Composite valuation indicators ............................................60
EMBIG100................................................................................64
Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards .............................71
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