发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球新兴市场投资策略报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：98
【目录或简介】：
Investment strategy 2
CEEMEA and Latam market
and sector recommendations 9
Asian market and sector
recommendations 14
Markets & Regions: 21
Central Europe (Neutral) 22
Russia (Overweight) 27
Turkey (Overweight) 30
South Africa (Underweight) 33
Egypt (Overweight) 36
Israel (Underweight) 39
UAE (Off-benchmark) 42
Saudi Arabia (Off-benchmark) 44
Qatar (Off-benchmark) 46
Kuwait (Off-benchmark) 48
Latam 51
Brazil (Neutral) 52
Mexico (Overweight) 55
Other Latam (Underweight) 58
Asia 63
China (Neutral) & Hong Kong (Overweight) 64
Korea (Overweight) 67
Taiwan (Overweight) 69
India (underweight) 71
Other Asian markets 73
Malaysia 74
Indonesia 75
Thailand 76
Philippines 77
Datapack 78
Country/Sector performance 78
Earnings 81
Valuation 82
Sectors and stocks 83
Economic forecasts 84
Disclosure appendix 92
Disclaimer 94
GEM equity environment
This document highlights our global emerging
market equity strategy themes for Q2 2010. In
many ways, the picture looks similar to Q1 – and
we are pursuing the same four themes: a
preference for US recovery beneficiaries; a focus
on markets where inflation and policy risk are low
or are likely to diminish; a liking for markets in
economies which were particularly disadvantaged
by the financial crisis, partly because these have
disproportionate scope for recovery; and we are
attracted to cheap markets. It turns out that most
of these themes dovetail with one another.
US growth sensitives
Among emerging markets, we prefer those which
are sensitive to US rather than Chinese growth.
Equity markets tend to perform well when growth
has stabilised, the output gap is big, inflationary
pressures are low and policy can remain
stimulative. They do less well when growth has
been strong and inflationary pressures are rising.
In terms of the global economy’s two big growth
locomotives, the US and China, in our view the
US is at a better stage of the equity cycle. We
thought this in Q1; we still think it now – hence
our title, Yankee Doodle is still dandy. In the US,
while the economy is recovering, there is a lot of
spare capacity and unemployment remains very
high, and our economists believe that interest
rates are likely to remain unchanged at least until
next year. Because of heavy restructuring, the US
corporate sector is highly leveraged to the
upswing, which underwrites a positive trend in
corporate earnings. Positive macro fundamentals
look equity market supportive.
There are structural and micro-economic issues
which could create volatility, like financial sector
reform and litigation and perhaps sovereign risk,
but in our view, at this stage of the economic
cycle, macro fundamentals are still likely to trump
such obstacles. No matter that the political
mindset in the US is increasingly directed to reregulating
the banks, both the economic and the
political (given mid-term elections in November)
imperative is towards reflation – overall, we think
that this should be positive for US equities.
In contrast to the US, recent data suggests that
overheating pressures remain rather intense in
China. While growth is ebullient, this is getting
little traction on equities, since investors appear to
fear that policy-makers are getting left behind the
curve so that ultimately the threat is that more
tightening will be required than would otherwise
京公网安备 11010802022788号
