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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：106
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Executive summary 3
Why investors should accumulate Chinese bank stocks from now to around
Lunar New Year 3
Why we think ICBC and CMB will outperform and have the best risk/return ratio
in 2010F 6
Five themes for China banks in 2010F 10
Chinese banks — 2010F outlook 14
1Q10F loan growth likely to pick up from 4Q09, but will not be as high as in 1Q09 14
2010F loan growth to be strong and more balanced 15
1H10 net income to be boosted by low base effect 20
Banks that raise capital early could benefit more 21
Challenges for Chinese banks in 2010F 23
High Loan-to-Deposit Ratio could fuel competition for deposits 23
PBOC bills issuing yield rising 25
Interest rate hike – symmetrical hikes positive for banks’ earnings 25
Asymmetrical interest rate hike: risk manageable 26
RRR hike — implications more meaningful than actual impact 28
Restructuring is a time-consuming process as consideration is paid to all
stakeholders 28
Property: near-term correction could be healthy development for the
longer term 30
Full-year 2009 results preview 33
Implications from new Basel Accord 35
Insurance – also a positive year in 2010 37
Valuation methodology 38
Sustainable ROE valuation methodology 38
Appendix — Retail vs Corporate lending 41
Latest company views
ICBC (H-share) 45
China Construction Bank-H 50
Bank of China (H-share) 55
Bank of Communications 60
China Merchants Bank 65
China CITIC Bank 70
China Minsheng Bank - H 75
Shanghai Pudong Dev Bank 81
Industrial Bank 86
Huaxia Bank 91
Shenzhen Development Bank 96
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